Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock Bank of America SMID Cap Virtual Conference
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Hi, everyone. I'm Trey Brown. I work together with Jill Carey Hall on our U.S. small and mid-cap strategy team within BofA Global Research. We have a few sessions going on concurrently, but Jill and I just wanted to welcome everyone to our two-day annual SMID Cap Executive Insights event, which provides opportunities to hear from corporates across the small and mid-cap space, where BofA has great breadth of coverage. Our analysts cover nearly 1,000 small and mid-caps in the U.S., and Jill and I have also been expecting continued leadership from some mid-caps in the back half of this year. Please feel free to reach out if you need the schedule or want to sign up for any additional sessions today or tomorrow. We have nearly 20 companies joining.
Or if we can help signing you up for either our small and mid-cap strategy research or our data compilation of mid-cap fundamental research. With that, I'd like to pass it over to Mihir Bhatia, our consumer finance analyst, to introduce Upstart Holdings.
Thanks, Trey. Thanks, everyone, for joining, and especially to the Upstart team and Paul. Really appreciate you guys joining us today. Before we get started, one quick disclosure statement that I've been asked to read. Today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements that relate to future results and events, which are based on Upstart's information available as of today and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. The discussion may also include non-GAAP financial measures, which are not a substitute for GAAP results. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC and its IR website for additional information, including GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations, along with other disclosures. Okay, with that out of the way, the lawyers should be happy, so we can get started. Again, like I said, a lot of you already know Upstart.
I think I recognize most of the names of the folks joining, but we'll go through, I think right at the start, we'll ask Paul to give us a quick overview of the company. Before that, again, just want to say thank you to Paul and the Upstart team for doing this conference with us today and for the opportunity to host you all today. So thank you, Paul, for joining, and let's get started. Maybe I'll just kick it off with that, Paul. You've been with Upstart right from the start, 14 years now, I think. You recently took over as CEO.
Maybe for the benefit of anyone who is newer to the story, just give us the quick 90-second version of what Upstart is today. Then I think the part that matters for investors, that excites investors, why does this business compound for 35% over the next few years?
Yeah. Really short tagline would be AI for consumer lending. We operate a marketplace business where consumers can go and shop for offers of credit. We do personal loans, auto loans, HELOCs. Really, over time, we will offer the entire suite of consumer credit products. Our real strategy from the beginning has been to say, "Hey, there is a whole bunch of transformative technology innovation happening around how we use models to make better predictions and understand patterns and data." But that innovation has largely not made its way into consumer lending, which is arguably the most important place for it to go. Because if you think about the history of consumer lending, this is the world's oldest industry. Almost everybody borrows at some point in time.
Actually, surprisingly, a large number of people, depending on your exact metric of preference, something like 50% or more of people in the U.S. we think are underserved in how they access credit. Either it costs too much, they can't get approved, it takes too long, and it is all fundamentally because the ability of the models and the lending companies to understand their risk is too limited. So what we have done over time is we have built models that can both better understand the risk, which we call better risk separation, and automate away a bunch of the process. As a result, we are able to radically reduce the cost and complexity of credit for everyday Americans who are looking to borrow, and that is just about everybody.
Great. Maybe just on the second part of that question, though, why is this going to be growing at a very high rate for the next few years?
Yeah. It is exactly those two things I said. One, this is an industry that is relevant to almost everybody. The addressable market here is enormous. It is almost laughably large if you try to do any kind of math against it. At the same time, usually industries that are that big are really saturated, really well addressed, all the sort of innovations have already gotten plugged in, and that is just not the case in the consumer lending world, which I think for various reasons historically has tended to move slowly in adopting new technologies. We really have been, for a number of years here, the first, and we think we have quite a large lead in taking a lot of the innovation happening in AI and applying it to this space.
We think it is one of the best possible applications there is for AI to do good and serve the consumer. I think you put those things together, disruptive technology transformation against a huge market that has not really fully ingested that disruption, and I think naturally you are going to get a business that has the ability to compound for a very long time.
Got it. I do want to dig in on that advantage that you all have, but we will get to that in a few minutes. Before that, I did want to just highlight that while you have been with the company a long time, you just recently took over as CEO in the last few months. I think when you took over, one of the last few weeks, I think I was reading, you have called it the second leg of the race, right? Taking over as CEO. Maybe just talk about that a little bit. Specifically, I think one question we get from investors is, "Well, Paul has been there a while. What is really changing?" Maybe talk a little bit about what investors can expect in terms of changes. What is going to be different under Paul than maybe under Dave?
Yeah. Yeah. Obviously, Dave and I worked together in close partnership for a long time.
We started this business, as you said, 14 years ago. The thing about this business is that it surprised us in how long it took to build. At first, I think when we started, we thought, "Oh, we will just do this, and within a few years, everybody is going to be chasing us on this same race of applying AI to credit, realizing how large the opportunity is." I think we have just been consistently surprised how slowly that has taken to happen.
I think it's actually for a lot of the reasons that it took us so long to build the sort of first, what we call the first leg of the race, which has a lot to do with the fact that consumer credit, maybe credit in general, but certainly consumer credit, obviously it's highly regulated. It's an industry that has a lot of entrenched ways of doing things. If you think about what does it take if you're going to say, "Hey, we have this completely new way of understanding credit risk," what do you need to do to actually make that a market reality and do that at scale? Well, it turns out you need a whole bunch of different kinds of very old institutions to buy in, right?
You need rating agencies to understand the risk of this stuff, so they can rate these things in a sort of risk-appropriate way. That unlocks financing for capital partners. The capital partners themselves, of course, have to buy in. Regulators have to understand it, banks, et cetera. You have all of these different kinds of institutions that really sort of form this network around maybe the traditional way of understanding consumer risk. We came in and said, "Hey, we have this completely different way of doing things. Never mind that this person's FICO score may look like this or that." It took actually a bunch of years to overcome that because then once these people buy in, then you are able to start making the loans. Then the loans themselves take 2, 3, 4 years to prove themselves as actually good performing loans.
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