Once Upon a Farm, PBC Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference
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Welcome back, everybody, and excited for our next session. I am thrilled to welcome for the first time, actually, at our conference, Once Upon a Farm, which went public back in February of this year. With us today are Co-Founder and CEO, John Foraker, and CFO, Lawrence Waldman. Thanks to both of you for joining us.
Appreciate it. Great to be here.
Yeah. Maybe a good place to start. I think there is probably a bunch of folks here that are not maybe as familiar with the Once Upon a Farm story. I think maybe it might be helpful to kick it off with just a quick intro to the company and anything else you think that is important, just to highlight regarding Once Upon a Farm and sort of the company strategy and sort of what differentiates it from a lot of the other offerings out there.
Sure. Once Upon a Farm is building a modern childhood nutrition brand, baby's first foods up through about age 12. Larry and I, and Jen Garner joined this company in late 2017, almost nine years ago. It was less than $1 million in revenue at that time. It was really an idea to go disrupt fresh baby food and we guided to well north of $300 million this year. So there has been a lot of growth, and we think the opportunity is there for this to be a billion-dollar brand, very clearly with our strategy. And what you should know about our business is we have very high standards. We are certified organic. We are a public benefit corporation. We have really important values and principles that are built into the way that we are running this business and also the kind of products that we are driving and supporting.
We have a very strong process in place that we're known for our products, particularly our fresh pouches, which are our really first products that we did. They're made with HPP, high pressure instead of heat. We take these great fruits and vegetables and other ingredients, put them into a pouch, and then process them using pressure. We get a shelf life that lets us go into retail commerce with them, and the product tastes like a smoothie you made in your blender 10 minutes ago, four months later. So incredible product quality and we've now built that and are starting to take that brand from baby all the way through kids, older kids. We have a really strong position in baby aisles, in coolers as a big part of our strategy is growing and disrupting the baby aisle with fresh coolers.
Then dry baby snacking and then we're over in kid dairy with our kid snacking pouches, which is our first product line that's been very successful, continues to grow. Then about every 12 to 18 months, we'll be taking the brand into another part of the store. The whole idea is really to bring consumers into this brand, baby through kid. They trust the brand. They know the quality of the products and what the brand stands for. As a result, as their kids age, we're meeting their needs as those kids age, and therefore creating a really high lifetime value of the consumer. The other thing you should know about all this, the reason it's working so well, is we're extremely incremental to every category we go into, 60%-80% incremental, which drives a lot of growth for us and our retailers.
We're the number one growth-driving brand in our categories for our retail partners, and we have a long future ahead of us that we're excited about.
Great. Thank you for that. You now raised revenue guidance twice this year. Underlying consumptions remained in the sort of low to mid 30% range, and many of the key consumer metrics you've highlighted, including household penetration, repeat rates, buy rates, continue to move in the right direction. I guess one of the biggest debates around Once Upon a Farm today is whether the business is still in the sort of early innings of a sort of multi-year growth curve or whether some degree of normalization is inevitable as the company scales. When you think about the next several years, what are the biggest drivers that give you confidence growth can remain elevated even as the revenue base becomes materially larger?
Yeah. We built a long-term algorithm with a 20% annual growth rate. Early on for the next three years, we expect to be higher than that. On long term, we are looking at 20%. What is going to be driving that is really a few things. First, we are at a 6.2% household penetration. A lot of the growth is going to be driven by adding households to the brand and driving household penetration. We believe that we can increase our household penetration by three times, and that is going to drive a significant amount of growth. Next is distribution. We are about a 70% ACV right now. We added almost 100,000 points of distribution in the last quarter. We are going to continue to add the distribution. We are working on a program. We will be adding doors. We will adding different channels over the year.
One thing that we are looking to do is really add a number of assortment in each one of our areas of distribution. We are currently at about a little under 30 SKUs per door that we are in, and we are looking at adding additional distribution in each one of those doors. We have certain doors that are up at 60, certain doors that are up about 100 points of distribution. Every time we add a cooler in, it adds around 50 SKUs into that door. We are really looking, we are going to increase distribution, but we are really looking at increasing the assortments there in our existing doors and driving distribution there. The third thing is coolers. We are currently at 4,100 coolers as of end of last quarter. We are continuing to drive coolers, which drives assortment into the baby aisle.
We will have approximately 5,000 coolers by the end of this year. In the S-1, we looked at and we said that today we believe that is 15,000 coolers that, doors that we could have coolers in. We think that is the floor. We definitely think that we can be a lot higher than that.
Our baby snacks are in over 20,000 doors. We believe that any door that has our baby snacks in it could have a cooler added to it, so that is a significant amount of growth. Really it is just looking at driving the TAM through looking at adding innovation and additional categories in, and really just building the breadth of the brand over the store and where we are currently in.
Right. Household penetration increased from roughly 5% to over 6% in a relatively short period of time, while repeat rates and buy rates have also continued to improve. Typically, rapid household acquisition comes with some dilution, right, in those other metrics as less loyal users kind of enter the brand. Why do you think Once Upon a Farm has been able to add households while simultaneously improving the engagement metrics?
Well, the main reason is because we have very high repeat rates. We are over 50% with households with kids, and new families are significantly higher than that, and product coming out of a cooler is even higher than that. So we know that when we build awareness for the brand, we get into the consideration set and we get trial, we are going to get very strong repeat. That has been a big part. And then the other thing is we know that when consumers come in and buy more than one category that we are in, their basket is significantly bigger. We can see that in the retailer card data.
It is one of the reasons why we think the strategy of building out in these multiple categories and then cross-pollinating the awareness with our consumers of these categories, and building it out is going to drive just much bigger outcome over time, and we think there is a significant opportunity to do that. Right now, we have got about 11% unaided awareness. It is unaided awareness. That is almost double what it was a year ago. And unaided awareness and awareness in general is really an early indicator for household penetration gains. So we feel like we are at the very beginning of continuing to drive that curve into many, many more households, and we think that there is a very good opportunity for us to hold buy rate at a minimum, but hopefully grow it over time as we cross-pollinate.
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