Canadian Pacific Kansas City Morgan Stanley's 14th Annual Laguna Conference
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Round out the transportation track at the 14th Annual Laguna Conference by welcoming back onstage CPKC with President and CEO Keith Creel and Vice President of Capital Markets, Tax, and Treasury, Krista Breunig. Gentlemen, thank you so much for coming back to Laguna.
Always a pleasure. Keith, so much going on from the cycle to M&A to regulations and obviously your plate remains pretty full.
Wherever you want to start off, again, just give us a sense of where you're spending your time today, what you're focused on, and what you think the top priorities are for the company.
Okay. Thanks again for having us up. It's always a pleasure to talk about our story. Thinking about the year, the way it's playing out, a lot of things I could not have predicted. Obviously, there's no shortage of challenges, but the things that we could, we put the pin in at the beginning of the year, guiding to mid-single digit RTM growth, which will allow us to produce a low double-digit earnings.
Yep tanker. In spite of all the challenges, as this thing has played out, I am very pleased with where we are.
We came out of the first half in a momentum operating strength as well as commercial strength in the second half. RTMs were about 4% year to date. Quarter to date, we are knocking on 7%, so we continued to gain a little bit of momentum. Operationally, the railroad is running extremely well. Continued growth in strength in grain, strength in intermodal, moderating headwinds in some of our coal challenges. That 4% I talked about, if not for coal, if it were normalized, that is 6% RTM growth. Again, as those two things start to moderate for us, demand continues to be there. We are clearly in line to deliver on the guidance that we have given for the year.
More importantly, as we continue to build this network out, we are well-positioned to continue to lead the industry in growth. We talked about a lot of noise. We have integrated a railroad that I never would have predicted the freight recession over the last three and a half years. As that begins to moderate- you get to a more normal environment, whatever normal looks like, and you get beyond some of these, I call them the trade tribulations, and get to more certainty when it comes to tariffs and trade between the three countries.
The things that are occurring in Canada as a result of those trade tribulations that I think continues to strengthen our network as well as the North American economy overall. It leads to a good place as we go forward.
Got it. Great setup there. Maybe a couple follow-ups on that. Do you and your customers know what normal looks like? Maybe do you have to move the goalpost a little bit on what normal looks like? When do you think they can finally maybe effectively get off their hands and say, "Hey, we need to create economic activity here," or, "We need to build inventory here," versus waiting for headlines to allow?
Yeah, I don't know what normal is anymore. I think you control what you can control. The customers themselves, what we've seen, certainly when you have volatility and unpredictability, it's going to minimize or at least lessen the full benefit of certainty and the investment that follows certainty. I think once you get to USMCA, CUSMA, whatever you want to call it, whatever acronym you have, once that gets settled.
Yeah I think that leads to a better outcome.
But in spite of that, you continue to have significant investment in Mexico. You continue to have significant investment in the U.S. from all the manufacturing and the data centers are being developed, all those mechanisms that are moving. So investment's occurring, trade is flowing. It's going to be accretive once it gets settled. But the biggest impact, especially for us, I think has already been felt.
The things that are being talked about and the potential outcomes I think are favorable. I think some of what we've lost in metals, some we lost in aluminum, some of the headwinds even in automotive, I think once it gets settled, those become tailwinds. You may not get it all back. There's going to be some rebalancing. More shift is going to happen in the U.S., perhaps on the manufacturing side. But I still think you have trade and trade flowing between these three nations, which we uniquely connect in a very positive way.
Got it. Maybe just to follow up on the point of USMCA. It feels like there is renewed momentum there, some more optimism that we may get a lasting resolution fairly soon. Obviously, you guys are pretty plugged in on that. Do you have any intel there? What are your views on that? Second, you sort of alluded to it in your comments, but does it feel like there is some pent-up demand there that can be unleashed when that's done?
Well, as far as resolution, Steve, I am not certain. I think we are in a better place with Mexico than Canada. I also think that Prime Minister Carney and President Trump at the end know and will do what is best for the U.S., what is best for Canada. That is a strong trading relationship between the 2 countries. The thing that I am very encouraged about, though, short term, is what Canada is doing to diversify itself to a point. They are always going to be connected to the U.S. It is the largest single end market. But what this crisis has created in Canada, I perhaps never thought I would see maybe in my life, much less in my leadership legacy at the company.
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