Alamos Gold Inc. Class A Common Shares John Tumazos Very Independent Research Virtual Conference
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We're so happy to host Scott K. Parsons, the Senior VP Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Alamos Gold. We're so happy for their success, and Scott's going to tell us all about it, please.
Thank you, John, for hosting us once again. We've been part of this conference in some form or another for going on more than a decade, and we appreciate your support, both to Alamos and the broader industry, and happy to be part of the conference again. Today I'm going to be providing everyone with an overview of Alamos and outlining why we have one of the strongest outlooks in the sector. I am going to be making some forward-looking statements for this presentation, so I would encourage you to review our cautionary notes on your own time. I'll start with a brief overview of the company and our strategy, which I think really speaks to what we're doing as a company and where we're going. We're a diversified intermediate gold producer, but above all else, we are a growth company.
We're currently producing about a little over 500,000 ounces per year, but on a pathway to be producing about 1 million ounces annually by 2030. That growth is going to come from two projects in Canada, the Island Gold District and our Lynn Lake project. Both of those projects are going to be lower cost producers, such that they are going to take our cost profile, which is around industry average this year at $1,825 per ounce and a little higher than we would like, down towards the $1,250 per ounce range by 2028. That is a function of bringing on that, generally speaking, higher grade, lower cost production over the next several years. Another key facet of the Alamos story is where our assets are located.
Majority of our production and all of our growth is coming from Canada, such that 90% of our net asset value is supported by our Canadian assets, and that's really underpinned by our Island Gold district operation, Young-Davidson, Lynn Lake. Between the three of those assets, you've got mine lives that are averaging just under 20 years. With the outlook for each of these assets, I would fully expect these assets are going to be operating a lot longer than 20 plus years from now. Another key facet of our story is we look to de-risk the business wherever we can. I touched on political risk. Our center of gravity has shifted dramatically towards Canada, giving us one of the lowest political risk profiles.
We also look to operate a very clean balance sheet, and that's where we are today and where we've been throughout most of our history with a strong cash balance and minimal to no debt. That's served us well during every point in the cycle. Our performance over the past year has not been up to our usual standards, and I will touch on that shortly, but this has not taken away from what is a really strong longer-term track record of outperformance. If you look at how we perform going back to the end of 2021, we're up more than 370% over that timeframe, significantly outpacing the price of gold, the various gold equity ETFs, and the S&P 500 itself. The driver of that longer-term outperformance is really a reflection of a number of things.
It's that high-quality portfolio of assets concentrated in Canada, giving us that low political risk profile, one of the strongest growth profiles, a declining cost profile over the next several years, and growing free cash flow while reinvesting in growth. Another big driver of our performance is our ability to create value from within, having generated $18 billion in value across our asset base since the acquisition of these assets. This internal value creation is really what's underpinning the growth of Alamos, and it's also something that we believe is sustainable given the outlook for each of our assets. One of the key drivers of our longer-term outperformance is our unique positioning within the intermediate gold producer space. We are one of the only companies that ticks all of the right boxes that investors, general investors, every investor is looking for.
We've got one of the strongest growth profiles with a pathway to doubling our rate of production to 1 million ounces by 2030. Our costs are already lower than the industry average and expected to decrease significantly over the next several years, such that we expect to be one of the lowest cost gold producers out there. We've got one of the largest reserve bases totaling 16 million ounces, underpinning one of the longest reserve lives. As I touched on on the previous slide, with 90% of our net asset value and 90% of our reserves concentrated in Canada, we have one of the lowest political risk profiles. The other key driver of our outperformance has been our long-term track record of value creation, and this is our long-term report card.
The bar on the left for each of these assets is the acquisition cost in gray, and the bars on the right are the current consensus net asset value, as well as the free cash flow that each of these assets has generated, net of all capital that's been invested into these assets. In each and every case, these assets are worth substantially more than what we've paid for them. Our blueprint when operating this company has been really simple. Focus on operating and developing high-quality assets with upside. This is something that we've been able to do across all four of our largest assets. When we do make acquisitions, and each of these assets has been acquired at some point in time, we look to pay a fair price whereby we can create value above and beyond what we paid for it.
Most recent example of this track record of success is the Island Gold District. Between Island Gold and the later acquisition of Magino, we paid a combined $1.4 billion for both of these operations. On a combined basis, these assets are now worth $11 billion based on current analyst consensus values, about eight times what we paid for it. They have also generated about $500 million in free cash flow, which is really understated because this operation is going through a pretty dramatic transformation right now, whereby we are expanding the size of the operation via a shaft expansion as well as an expansion in the mill. But once these are completed, you are going to see that free cash flow increase dramatically. If you look across all of these operating mines in our Lynn Lake project, we have created $18 billion of value since their respective acquisitions.
Given the outlook for each of these assets from both an exploration standpoint and a growth standpoint, we expect these values are going to continue to grow. Our ongoing exploration success has been one of the key drivers of this value creation. If you look at our track record over the past seven years, our reserves have grown in each and every year for an aggregate increase of 64% to 16 million ounces, and that is net of 4.1 million ounces of depletion over that timeframe. We have discovered over that timeframe 9 million ounces of resources at a discovery cost of $33 per ounce. If you are ever having that conversation with an investor, why own a gold equity as opposed to the commodity itself, this is a perfect illustration of the type of leverage and torque you get within a high-quality gold company.
The ability to find ounces in the ground at a cost of about $30 per ounce, turn around and develop, produce those assets, and then sell them at gold prices north of $4,000 per ounce. This pace of discovery, this pace of reserve growth is what is underpinning our growth as a company. It is supporting the development of new projects in the case of our PDA project in Mexico, our Lynn Lake project in Manitoba, as well as the expansion of current operations like we are seeing at the Island Gold District. Given the ongoing exploration success we are having, you have seen our exploration budgets increase in every year over the last several years to now approaching just under $100 million. This is success driven. If we are not having success, you are not going to continually see our exploration budgets increase.
If we continue to have success like we are, I would expect to continue to see this exploration budget continue to grow. I touched on in the beginning, our shorter-term performance has not been up to our usual standards, and that has been primarily due to some operational challenges at our Young-Davidson mine. In June, Young-Davidson was impacted by a seismic event that has temporarily reduced underground mining rates. Seismicity is a normal part of every underground operation. The events that we had at Young-Davidson caused some damage to one of the access points on the 9410 level that was supplying about 2,500 tons per day. We did not sterilize any of these reserves. We absolutely expect to get back into this area after completing some rehab and putting in some additional ground support.
But in the near term, it has pushed our mining rates down from north of 7,500 tons per day to 5,000 tons per day through the second half of this year. We fully expect mining rates to improve into 2027. But in the near term, this was the main driver of our decrease in production guidance that we announced in July, as well as the increase in cost guidance. Again, this is a temporary setback. We do expect improving results, particularly into the latter part of this year, as well as over the next several years. The really important point to make here is there's no changes to our strong long-term outlook. The Island Gold District, it's our biggest operation. It's our biggest driver of growth and cost improvement that we are expecting over the next several years. That operation is performing really well.
We are seeing underground mining rates continue to increase. We're seeing milling rates increase to planned rates of 10,000 tons per day through the third quarter. The shaft expansion is going really well. The larger mill expansion at Magino is going really well and on track to be completed into the first quarter of 2028. These are the key facets of our growth story and what's really going to propel production higher over the next several years as well as bring our costs down. The other key driver of our longer-term growth, Lynn Lake, is also advancing well. We started construction earlier this year. Construction's ramping up well. We're going to get into more heavier construction activities into 2027, and that operation is on track to start contributing production into the middle of 2029.
That's the last piece that takes us up to that million ounce per year threshold. This is a great illustration of that strong long-term outlook. Again, we're producing a little over 500,000 ounces this year. By 2030, we expect to be producing double that at a rate of about a million ounces per year. The key drivers of that growth, and we are going to see steady growth over the next several years, are the completion of the shaft expansion at Island Gold into the first half of 2027, a further expansion of the Island Gold District in 2028 with the completion of that larger mill expansion, and then initial production from Lynn Lake into 2029. All of this growth is in Canada. It's all fully funded, and it's all lower cost.
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