Rockwell Automation Baird 2026 Global Industrial Conference
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All right. Good morning. Thanks, everybody, for being here. Welcome to session for Rockwell Automation. I'm Quinn Fredrickson, Senior Research Analyst at Baird, covering advanced industrial technology. Most of you are probably aware Rockwell Automation is the largest pure play industrial automation and digital transformation company, specializing in automation control systems, software, components, and services for automating factories, processes, and machines. With us today to discuss the company, we have Blake Moret, who is Rockwell's Chairman and CEO, and then Matheus Bulho, who is the SVP of the Software and Control segment. Blake is going to open up with some opening comments, and then we'll come back for Q&A.
Great. Well, thanks, Quinn. Pleasure to be with you today. Just for, especially for those of you who might be a little bit newer to the name, as Quinn said, we're a pure play devoted to industrial automation and digital transformation. We're the most used technology in American manufacturing. We're a Milwaukee, Wisconsin headquartered company. We go to business with three business units, the Software and Control business unit that Matheus runs, Intelligent Devices, and Lifecycle Services. We cover manufacturing and production across the whole spectrum of vertical industries. So you'll hear us talk about discrete industries, which includes automotive, data center, semiconductor, e-commerce, warehouse automation, hybrid applications, which include consumer packaged goods, which include food and beverage, home and personal care, pharmaceuticals, and process industries, including energy, chemicals, mining, and so on.
We've put together a nice combination of above-market growth and significant margin expansion, and we're looking forward to talking about all of that here in the next few minutes.
Great. For the audience, any questions you can submit to session2@rwbaird.com, and we'll field them up here. Blake, I think just to start off, it would be helpful to recap a little bit what you saw in fiscal year 2026. You began the year with 2%-6% organic growth as your outlook. By August, it had changed to 7.5%-9.5%, still without a broad release of larger project capital. What has changed the most in your assessment of the underlying automation market as we move now into fiscal year 2027?
Well, I think that's a great context. We started last year, 2026, with a prudent guide. We were happy to beat and exceed that through the year, and we're starting this year with a prudent guide as well. Industries that exceeded our expectations in the last year included data center and semiconductor, automotive, which is one of Rockwell's most traditional businesses, about 10% of our total revenue exceeded expectations, particularly in the latter part of the year, and we see continuing strength there. Life sciences with pharmaceuticals, GLP-1 certainly driving a certain amount of that demand, but really broad-based. I would say in both life sciences as well as automotive, some additional competitive wins where we were in strong competition, but some of our new capabilities, things that Matheus Bulho will talk about shortly, allowed us to win.
Data center continues strong adoption of our hardware, including Logix, and we can certainly talk about some of the underlying strength that we expect to continue there.
So if we think about your guide initially for 2027, the 6%-9% organic growth, any way to frame up what the industrial economy or industrial production would look like at the upper and lower bounds of the outlook?
Yeah. I think industrial production, we're seeing favorable trends, and over time, we're probably most closely correlated to IP rates. Traditionally, we saw a gearing of about two times IP. I think it's too early to say we've totally recoupled back into that, but it's a good starting point. When you think about our growth algorithm, we talk about the underlying market growth, and you can use factors like IP and PMI to get some directional sense of that. But on top of that, we're encouraged by higher than traditional price as well, which goes into that. We guided to 3 points of price in fiscal year 2027, and that is before including the impact of some of our price increases that will come in 2027.
For instance, we are going to have a price increase in December, and that is not included in the guide for the year. Add to that additional served market and share growth. We have talked about continued growth and share with programmable controllers, with Logix, with IO, with variable speed drives, and new served market contributing to growth, and mobile robots is a good example of that with our OTTO mobile robots. Add to that ARR, which is about $1 billion, a very profitable business for us, and then additional inorganic contribution. I do expect in the coming year, we will see the return of inorganic growth, and we can talk about what we have in mind there as well.
Mentioned share gains as a driver. What areas can you point to that you have seen some clear market share gains since COVID?
Yeah. As we have talked about a number of times, we triangulate and look at share from a variety of sources. We can look at it from the quarter-to-quarter performance versus the relevant parts of our competitors, so the automation portion of Siemens Digital Industries, which we have got a nice streak of outperformance against. You look at the automation portion of Schneider, Emerson, and so on. It is not whole company versus whole company because they are doing things that we are not in, but we look at that. We look at the industry reports, and in some cases, we will look at the reports that are geographic-centric. You bring all that together, and you do not jump at something in one single quarter or another, but we think we have had durable gains in programmable controllers with Logix, with the associated IO, variable speed drives.
And then certainly in the U.S., it appears that we are continuing to gain share on top of what is already by far the leading position in certain of these products.
I mentioned earlier that throughout this year, you hadn't seen that broader project release. How do we think about what's built in for larger project spend and greenfield recovery, and just how does the pipeline look for those projects looking versus a year ago or even six months ago?
Last year, and we've formally tracked and pursued new capacity, whether you want to call it reshoring or shoring or new capacity, but it's a significant part of the business. Last year was by far the highest in terms of orders that we had seen to date in terms of new capacity for U.S. physical plant. The orders are coming from all over the world because you've got machine builders in Europe and you've got engineering firms in Asia that are contributing, but when at the end of the day, it's new capacity in the U.S., we saw far higher orders in 2026, and we see an even higher funnel than we did at the beginning of 2026 as we enter 2027. I think the backdrop is good for that. In Q4, our orders were mid-teens, and Q1 has started off just fine.
Last question, just tied to the outlook, would be how to think about any supply constraints like memory or other components, how that influences your view. I don't know if some signs of PC weakness out there in any way could help you in terms of memory supply, but it would just be good to get your thoughts on the supply chain.
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