Portland General Electric Company 2026 Q3 Earnings Call

Please go ahead. Thank you, Steven.

Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that we issued a press release this morning and have prepared a presentation to supplement our discussion, which we will be referencing throughout the call. The press release and slides are available on our website at investors.portlandgeneral.com. Referring to slide two, some of our remarks this morning will constitute forward-looking statements. We caution you that such statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from our expectations. For a description of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, please refer to our press release and our most recent forms, 10-K and 10-Q, which are available on our website.

Turning to slide three, leading our discussion today are Maria Pope, President and CEO, and Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO. Following their prepared remarks, we will open the line for your questions. Now I will turn things over to Maria.

Thank you, Erin, and good morning everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. The third quarter was impacted by the coolest summer in a decade. Against that backdrop, we continued to execute with discipline, actively managing power costs, driving efficiencies in O&M, and identifying additional opportunities to operate more effectively across our business. Importantly, our fundamentals remain strong with industrial demand growing 9% year over year, driven by continued demand from high tech and data center customers. In fact, we concluded a significant agreement with Verrus for a facility of up to 420 megawatts, which is expected to be energized in 2028 and ramp to full capacity by 2033. Regarding the proposed holding company. The commission issued its holding company order on September 25th. While the order approved certain aspects of the proposal, several conditions were not workable. We filed for clarification and changes to two areas.

We support the proposed rate credit and customer benefits totaling $83 million. If implemented, the HoldCo would provide additional financial flexibility while maintaining strong customer protections and utility financial strength. That said, while very important, our growth strategy, capital plan, and current guidance do not depend on the HoldCo implementation. Next, I'll speak to our financial results and key drivers. This morning we reported third quarter GAAP net income of $119 million for $1 per diluted share. A non-GAAP net income of $125 million or $1.06 per diluted share. Our non-GAAP results excluded business transformation, optimization, and acquisition-related expenses, which are not reflective of ongoing operational performance. The third quarter, like the year, was marked by historically mild weather, lower cooling demand in the quarter, and significantly reduced residential and small commercial energy usage. Turning to slide 4 for our strategic priorities. Customer growth. We continue to see strong demand from technology, semiconductor, and data center customers.

Our new large load tariff, effective in July, increased rates for data centers and other large customers while lowering rates for residential and small commercial customers, putting us ahead of many utilities across the country. The tariff contributed approximately $4 million of incremental margin in the third quarter and includes provisions designed to reduce risk and costs associated with serving new large loads. Essentially, at PGE, growth pays for growth. We now expect approximately 12% annual capacity growth from our large load customers through 2030, up from our prior outlook of 10%. This growth is supported by customers under contract who run already energized facilities or who are actively advancing construction and facility development. As I mentioned earlier in my remarks, we have an agreement with Verrus for a facility of up to 420 megawatts.

It is backed by customer and shareholder protections in our new large load tariff, including minimum payment obligations, direct cost allocation for infrastructure that will strengthen reliability across the region. The facility also includes integrated battery storage, giving us added flexibility to manage peak demand while maintaining reliability, integrating clean energy, and helping keep residential and commercial prices as low as possible. Verrus is working through the permitting processes, and applications were submitted ahead of any moratoriums. Energization is expected to begin in 2028. Turning to the Washington acquisition. We continue to move forward and advance the regulatory review process. We anticipate a 2027 close or a mid-2027 close. Third quarter marked an important milestone with the successful launch of our participation in the Extended Day-Ahead Market, or EDAM, a market PGE helped design and develop. EDAM further advances Western energy markets, lowers costs, reduces volatility, and improves reliability.

We expect EDAM to create meaningful customer value, contributing to reliability and affordability. Reflected in our 2027 AUT is $14 million of customer savings. I'm proud of the outstanding work our teams delivered to achieve this milestone. Another step forward in delivering efficient and affordable energy for our customers. Clean energy. We have executed two contracts for non-emitting projects. First, we signed a build transfer agreement for a combined 200-megawatt solar and 250-megawatt battery storage facility at Biglow, with an anticipated investment of $900 million. Second, we've also signed a build transfer agreement for the Salmonfly project, a combined 199-megawatt solar and 199-megawatt battery storage facility with an anticipated investment of $850 million. Salmonfly is being developed with the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs. The project supports coordinated operations of solar and storage, along with our existing and jointly owned hydroelectric facilities.

Additionally, we continue to make progress on commercial negotiations for other projects from the 2025 RFP. This month, we filed our 2026 Clean Energy Plan and Integrated Resource Plan with the Commission. Turning to risk management and wildfires. Against a challenging regional wildfire season, our teams executed our risk management plans, maintained enhanced readiness, and responded proactively. We declared the end of fire season in our service territory on October 26. We continue to execute our year-round wildfire mitigation program, including system hardening, enhanced situational awareness, and technology investments designed to improve reliability and reduce risk. Wildfire risk is a societal-wide issue, and we remain committed to working collaboratively with stakeholders on solutions that strengthen public safety, community resilience, and an investable energy future for the Pacific Northwest.

To summarize, we are seeing continued strength in customer growth, success executing initiatives such as EDAM, and advancing clean energy resource opportunities. This work positions us to serve our customers, support Oregon's growth, and deliver long-term value for shareholders. With that, I will turn to slide 5 and our 2026 earnings guidance. As a result of weather-related headwinds, we are revising our full-year adjusted earnings guidance from $3.33-$3.53 to $3.18-$3.28 per diluted share. We would have been solidly within our original guidance range if not for weather-related headwinds in the second half of the year. We continue to reaffirm our long-term earnings and dividend growth guidance of 5%-7%. I will now turn the call over to Joe to walk through our financial results in more detail.

Thank you. Thank you, Maria.

Good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 6, our third quarter results reflect continued execution on cost management, regulatory recovery, and industrial growth despite the mildest summer since 2016. Beginning with our load trends year over year. Total retail energy deliveries decreased 3% compared to the third quarter of 2025 on a nominal basis and increased 1% on a weather-adjusted basis. We continue to see strong demand from our technology semiconductor and data center customers, with 12% annual large customer capacity growth expected through 2030. Industrial demand remained a key driver in the third quarter, increasing 5% quarter over quarter and 9% year over year. This reflects continued demand from our high-tech and data center customers. In the third quarter, we experienced one of the mildest summers in recent history. Residential deliveries decreased 8.9% on a nominal basis and were down 0.6% weather-adjusted.

While commercial deliveries decreased 5.5% nominally and were down 2.8% weather-adjusted. We are updating our 2026 weather-adjusted load growth guidance from 1.5%-2.5% to 1%-2%, primarily reflecting changes in the timing of industrial load ramp-ups. Given contractual minimums, we do not expect the revised load forecast to result in meaningful changes to our 2026 revenue. Turning to our third quarter financial results. As a reminder, we provided adjusted EPS guidance of $1.20-$1.32 per share, with a midpoint of $1.26. Actual third quarter adjusted EPS was $1.06. The majority of this variance is a result of the historically mild weather. Now I will cover the primary year-over-year earnings drivers for the quarter. A $0.07 decrease from industrial demand driven by continued growth from high tech and data center customers. A $0.21 decrease from residential and commercial load, largely driven by the mild weather.