Intuitive Surgical Inc. Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
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Okay. Welcome back. I'm Larry Biegelsen, the med tech analyst at Wells Fargo, and it's my pleasure to host this session with the management team from Intuitive Surgical. With us, we have Jamie Samath, Executive Vice President, CFO, and Enterprise Technology Leader, and Dan Connally, Head of Investor Relations. The format is a fireside chat. Jamie and— Dan is going to read the safe harbor statement first.
Just real quick. Comments in today's session may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied as a result of certain risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are described in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including our most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which you can find through our website at intuitive.com or at the SEC's website. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements.
Thanks, Dan. Thank you for being here.
Yeah. Happy to be here.
Jamie, I wanted to start with procedures with the focus on the U.S. We have seen U.S. procedure growth slow recently and your comment about law of large numbers, I think concerned some investors, to be candid. My question is, what framework would you use to help people estimate U.S. procedure growth going forward?
Yeah. I appreciate the question, and I know there is a lot of focus on the U.S. business right now. Let me zoom out for a second. I would say our focus first is on global procedure growth and on all procedure types, so including Ion. That is how we think about how we do capital allocation, how we incent our sales force. We have significant opportunities to drive the global. U.S. is about 60% of our business, and it has decelerated, as you have described. We said on the Q2 earnings call that there was a modest impact from lower Affordable Care Act subsidies. The way we think about the U.S. business is procedure by procedure. We draw adoption curves for each of them. If I think about that business, you have prostate in the fourth quartile of adoption.
You have cholecystectomy, the largest procedure category in the U.S., in the second quartile. You have appendectomy in the first quartile. We model each procedure on an adoption curve, and it also then ties to how we focus and how we invest, where they are relative to the size of the market. The total U.S. procedure growth then is a summation of each of those procedures and where they are. We think that we have a significant opportunity in the U.S., particularly benign general surgery. We have a couple of procedures that are early and have just been put on the beginning points of adoption in cardiac and nipple-sparing mastectomy. Over time, we think we have the opportunity to add additional procedures to the beginning of the funnel.
The way that we think about the market is a significant and attractive opportunity for us, and we think that we can continue to bring procedures to the beginning of that funnel. Of course, there are some dynamics in the marketplace right now. Affordable Care Act, as I described.
That's helpful. Which are the procedures that are going to drive the most growth in the U.S., let's just say over the next 2 to 3 years?
Yeah, I think broadly, just thinking about 2026, expect the growth drivers to be consistent year over year. Jamie mentioned, general surgery and specifically continued growth in after-hours procedures, so chole, hernia repair. In addition to that, obviously, we have some procedures at earlier stage opportunities like Jamie mentioned, cardiac and nipple-sparing mastectomy, as well as significant opportunity remaining in general surgery.
I guess, could we see. Let me just ask a blunt question. Could we see U.S. procedure growth dip below 10% in the second half, given the tougher comps and the ACA subsidies expiring?
I'd just say, obviously, we don't guide at the regional level. What we did in our last earnings call was provide the guidance range of 13.5% to 15.5%. Again, that's global. We said it's likely to be towards the midpoint of that range. That range does reflect more difficult second half comps compared to the prior year. Obviously, we incorporated our best estimate of the kind of ACA dynamic that we described on the Q2 call. Again, we're focused on the global total and the U.S. component is reflected in that range.
I was surprised when you talked about U.S. procedures, you didn't mention the ASC opportunity. Sorry. I know that's not a specific procedure, but it seems like a big opportunity for Intuitive.
Yeah, I think we described that starting in January of this year on the fourth quarter call as an opportunity over the long run. It's not going to be linear, but think that's a significant opportunity kind of enabled by growth and reconditioned Xi, right? We've had two quarters of that thus far, and I think in Q2, we placed 27 systems into ASCs, which was more than cumulatively over the prior couple of years. 20 of those were XiRs. Certainly supportive of growth in the mid to long term in that side of care.
That's helpful. Okay. We'll probably come back to procedures and in the context of the Extended Use Instruments program, but I wanted to ask about capital equipment. There's obviously concerns about the capital equipment environment, just given the profitability issues at hospitals today, given some of the policy changes. What's your view of the state of the capital equipment environment, maybe U.S. and globally, and how are you thinking about the outlook?
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