SBA Communications Corp Bank of America 2026 Media,Communications & Entertainment Conference

Michael, thanks for having me.

Let's go straight to Q&A.

Right. I think I've been in the wireless industry for 30 years now.

Yeah. In the old analog, the GSM, CDMA, 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, it's just a big cycle.

MNOs either buy or receive a new spectrum band. They roll out a new technology, get a 10x increase in capacity, a massive drop in the cost per bit that is being delivered, and then they'll harvest that, basically, that capacity that's being put to use. If you look at CapEx as a percentage of revenue for wireless operators, when they deploy a new technology, it runs at about 25% of revenue. Again, massive capacity increase. They basically start selling aggressively and harvesting that new capacity, and they cut CapEx because they don't really need it, because they got the coverage and the capacity with the initial rollout.

If you look at 2022, 2023, when 5G was rolled out by the three MNOs in the U.S., CapEx as a percentage of revenue was running at about 25%, and they spent over $40 billion per year building the 5G network. In 2025, 2026, I think we are in harvest mode. CapEx as a percentage of revenue is probably at an all-time low, below 15%. Even in this environment, we are still seeing lease up on our portfolio. Last year, excluding Dish, lease up was about $35 million. This year, our midpoint of our guidance is about $35 million a year, and it is steady. At some point, 6G will come, and the CapEx cycle will start again. I feel pretty good about the next few years. The FCC is auctioning 160 MHz of upper C-band spectrum by June of 2027.

It will probably take 18 months to clear, but I think by 2029, or maybe late 2028, 6G rollout may start. The OEM from Nokia, Ericsson, Samsung, all have basically 6G equipment in beta test, and they will be ready to roll out the new technology. That is going to, basically, it is going to be more spectrum efficient. It is going to deliver more bits per hertz than 5G, and also it is going to dramatically cut the cost per bit that is being delivered to the end user. I think it is just going to help the MNOs to provide new services, and support new application from AI agent to fixed wireless access, self-driving car and so on. We feel pretty good about the next few years. In the current environment, I think the MNOs are still spending money, still expanding coverage, doing densification, collocation.

I think our role is really to support their build, support their network. We try to provide a high-quality network, be very responsive to their need, and be there for when they roll out 6G.