Cipher Digital Inc. Common Stock KBW Virtual AI Summit
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Hey, everyone. I'm Stephen Glagola, senior equity research analyst covering digital assets and AI infrastructure at KBW. To kick off our inaugural KBW AI Infrastructure Summit, I'm delighted to welcome Greg Mumford, CFO of Cipher Digital, and I might add, a former KBW alum himself. Greg, thank you for joining us today.
Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.
Yeah. Greg, maybe we can start with the broader backdrop. Over the past couple of years, sentiment towards miners moving into AI infrastructure has swung pretty sharply between enthusiasm and skepticism. We've had brief periods of re-rating, but they've generally been followed by longer periods of chop and de-risking. Since June, skepticism has really taken hold. There's now a broad wall of worry. Investors are asking whether safety concerns could slow AI development, deployment, and whether token optimization and changing market shares among model providers could pressure the frontier labs, and whether political and local opposition could intensify ahead of and post the midterms. Then you layer on higher yields and concerns about circular financing across the ecosystem. Which of these concerns do you believe are overdone, which are justified, and what turns sentiment positive again here?
Yeah. Look, great question. I think it's no secret that stocks have traded down since June. I think we're at a really interesting point of the cycle for an infrastructure developer, where we've gone out and signed a bunch of leases, we've financed those projects, and now we're firmly in the physical execution stage of multiple projects, but prior to actually seeing any cash flow start being turned through the income statement. So that's a challenging time, where investors are really more focused on execution and everything between signing the lease through delivering the data center, as opposed to historically, when they were more focused on, can you sign the next deal, and when is that coming?
It is an interesting point in time. I think to your question, there are certainly a bunch of risks, some of them real and that deserve a healthy amount of respect, and some of them that are maybe a little bit overdone. As I think about the risks, one, the financing environment is more challenging than it has been historically. That is just true. The rates are up. Base rates are up. There is more supply from issuers. There is a huge amount of capital that is required to build out the AI infrastructure that we are talking about when we talk about deficits in the market. You are seeing that through various S-1s and things like that in the news. There is a lot of capital that needs to come, and investors are more focused on the execution.
Another risk, physical execution at this scale, it is huge, it is challenging. Then add into the equation that craft labor is being pulled in every different direction. The supply chain is being pulled in every direction. It is a challenging market. I think what is overdone is the thought that because of these risks and because of where we are at in this point of time, that demand is collapsing and that the fundamental underlying demand is slowing down. I think it is actually very much the opposite. We are continuing to see, and as you have seen in the market, lease terms improving despite the backdrop in equity markets. We are seeing definitely great alignment from our tenants and from conversations we are having across the board. I still think scarce power is the constraint and demand is not changing from what we can see.
Great. I want to talk more about the financing environment, funding environment in a minute, but let me turn to execution here. Barber Lake seems to validate Cipher's early bet on Texas. An AI lab committed to lease the facility for 10 years after Fluidstack's term at substantially similar economics. What enabled you to secure a commitment that far in advance, and what does it say about the durability of demand and pricing for Cipher's Texas campuses?
I am glad you brought this up. This, to me, is the best proof point that we have in the market to date of the fact that there is strong amounts of terminal value in these assets. There is a discussion since our first deal that we signed, which was 10 years, and it is at this Barber Lake site, about what is the terminal value of these sites that are being built in West Texas and other parts of the country that weren't built traditionally for cloud data centers. I think fundamentally, cloud data centers and AI campuses are two different beasts, and they require different things. The tier 1 or primary locations for them will be different. Fundamentally, you need less latency, lower proximity, more land, and more power. There will be tier 1 locations that are not traditional cloud 1 locations.
This is the best proof point in the market, I think, to date, of the fact that we are signing a lease 10 years from now, adding $5.2 billion of contracted revenue 10 years from now. It really validates the fact that we are building long-lived critical infrastructure assets to these tenants and counterparties that are using them.
Yeah, no, that is great. I guess on that, on Barber Lake, sticking with that, how did you get comfortable with the lab's credit that far out with no backstop disclosed for that decade? When evaluating prospective tenants, to what extent does your view of the long-term model layer landscape influence your willingness to partner with a particular AI lab, so to speak?
Yeah. When I think about the deal that we announced at Barber Lake, it makes sense to break it down into two different decades. The first decade is a lease facing Fluidstack with a Google backstop that fully supports our debt over the first 10-year term. Nothing has changed about that first 10 years, and the way that we have structured our debt over that first 10 years is to fully amortize within that first 10 years. If you think 10 years down the road as we are starting the second binding lease for 10 years directly facing the lab, our data center will be substantially delevered at that point. That is $5.2 of additional contracted revenue on a data center that is fully paid off.
It is a very different underwriting decision when you think about credit support or quality of the counterparty than something that we were going to do today, and we would need to finance through construction.
Okay. I guess maybe just double-clicking on what you just said prior to this question around the terminal value at your Texas campuses. What gives you confidence that you can maintain and grow rents at renewal rather than potentially trading at a discount to the major data center hubs as supply becomes less constrained?
Yeah. Again, I think this goes back to the idea that tier 1 locations for AI campuses are just fundamentally different than tier 1 locations for cloud data centers. When you think about that, and I mentioned a little bit earlier, AI campuses require things that cloud campuses do not. So you require way more land, huge amounts of power, and ability to scale. Almost every tenant wants the ability to scale and grow at the site. You need skilled labor in large amounts. When you think about places like West Texas or Louisiana or Indiana, North Dakota, there is really an investment from all of the major hyperscalers into these locations to build these large campuses. So you're seeing large amount of tax dollars flow into these communities. You're seeing a huge amount of labor flow in. There's going to be permanent jobs.
We just believe that over time, these locations will be the tier 1 locations for AI campuses. If you extend that logic to what it means for terminal value and renewal risk at the end of our base terms, we think that it's really actually de-risked. That needs to play out in the market a little bit, that thesis, but we're seeing it via discussions that we're having with our tenants. We're seeing it in the commitments that we're getting today, so another lease 10 years down the road for 10 years. We're seeing it in general lease terms across the space. Where lease terms initially started as modified gross leases for 10 years, you're now seeing 20-year leases triple net as kind of the standard.
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