Sirius XM Holdings 2026 Q3 Earnings Call

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Sirius XM's third quarter 2026 earnings call. Today's discussion will include prepared remarks from Jennifer Witz, our Chief Executive Officer, and Zac Coughlin, our Chief Financial Officer. Following their comments, we will open the call for questions. Joining us for the Q&A portion are Scott Greenstein, our President and Chief Content Officer, and Scott Walker, our Chief Advertising Revenue Officer. I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made during this call might be forward-looking statements as the term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These and all forward-looking statements are based upon management's current beliefs and expectations and necessarily depend upon assumptions, data, or methods that may be incorrect or imprecise. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

For more information about those risks and uncertainties, please view Sirius XM's SEC filings and today's earnings release. We advise listeners to not rely unduly on forward-looking statements and disclaim any intent or obligation to update them. As we begin, I'd like to remind our listeners that today's call will include discussions about both actual results and adjusted results. All discussions of adjusted operating results exclude the effects of stock-based compensation. Additionally, we have posted a supplementary earnings presentation and trending schedule on our investor relations website for your convenience. To provide an opportunity for as many analysts as possible to participate during the Q&A portion of the call, we ask that you please limit yourself to no more than two questions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jennifer.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. As we enter the final quarter of 2026, Sirius XM continues to make meaningful progress against the priorities we established nearly two years ago, strengthening our subscription business through exceptional in-car listening experiences, accelerating advertising and off-platform monetization, and leveraging our scale to drive greater efficiency and long-term shareholder value. We're seeing tangible results across all three areas. Subscriber trends remain stable, engagement is growing, and our advertising reach and inventory are expanding while disciplined execution continues to drive stronger profitability and cash flow. Our third quarter performance reinforces that progress. We delivered positive self-pay net additions, improved churn year-over-year, and maintained stable ARPU, reflecting continued stabilization in our subscription business. In advertising, we delivered double-digit growth in podcasting and programmatic, underscoring the strength of our expanding digital audio business.

Adjusted EBITDA grew 3%, with margins expanding one percentage point while free cash flow increased 14%, demonstrating the strength of our business model and our ability to drive greater profitability and cash generation. Reflecting our performance through the first nine months, we are again raising all three full-year financial guidance metrics by $25 million. We now expect approximately $8.55 billion in revenue, $2.65 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.4 billion of free cash flow for 2026. Before Zac reviews our financial results, I would like to highlight several areas of momentum. Starting with our subscription business, we delivered 5,000 positive self-pay net additions, an improvement of nearly 45,000 year-over-year and ahead of our expectations. Companion plans, extended duration dealer programs, and Continuous Service, together with improved churn, helped offset lower conversion rates and support greater subscriber stability.

Central to our strategy is increasing subscription value through differentiated content, broader access, and enhanced listening experiences. In late 2024, we expanded access to premium programming, including Howard Stern, sports play-by-play, and our Artist Station feature. That investment continues to deliver results, generating more than 2 million incremental monthly unique listeners in September, representing approximately 10% of subscribers who gained access. Companion plans build on that foundation by extending Sirius XM beyond the primary vehicle to more devices and household members. Approximately half are shared with a spouse, 25% are used in a second vehicle, and the remaining 25% extend access to other family members, primarily children. By bringing Sirius XM into more parts of our subscribers' lives, we are broadening household engagement and increasing the value of their subscriptions. Our research reinforces this opportunity.

As we shared last quarter, more than 80% of surveyed Companion plan users say the offering increases their subscription's value, while approximately three-quarters indicate they are more likely to remain subscribers. As a result, we are seeing encouraging retention benefits, and we continue to optimize the program to maximize incremental value and manage cannibalization and ARPU dilution. While we look for opportunities to thoughtfully expand the Companion subscription program, this fall, we also broadened our sports offering to include local sports programming from 24 markets, now available to tens of millions of subscribers nationwide. Early engagement is encouraging with approximately 22% of our 360L sports audience already tuning in, and more than 80% of listeners outside the channel's home markets. I will touch more on this later, but it is clear that our differentiated sports offering, including newly added local content, is contributing meaningfully to enhancing our subscription value.

Extended duration dealer programs are also gaining traction, with sales increasing more than 80% year-over-year, supported by two new automotive partners in 2026. These programs generate more than twice as many monthly active listeners per car sold as our traditional trial funnel, demonstrating the power of extended access to deepen listening habits. Together, these initiatives are broadening subscription access, strengthening retention, and supporting customer lifetime value, and our ability to implement price increases over time. Looking ahead, we anticipate a more challenging fourth quarter for self-pay subscriber trends as we anniversary the initial benefits of Continuous Service, navigate ongoing conversion pressures, and increase discipline around promotional acquisition. However, stronger than expected performance through September supports our improved full-year subscriber outlook, with self-pay net additions now expected to be approximately flat to 2025.

Our priority remains building a more engaged, loyal, and economically valuable subscriber base rather than maximizing near-term additions. That means investing in differentiated content, particularly in the car, while deepening fandom through live events, participatory listening, and closer connections to the artists and personalities our subscribers love. We're seeing encouraging evidence this strategy is working. Third quarter average listening time increased 5% year-over-year, with growth across every subscriber tenure group, demonstrating deeper engagement among newer and long-standing customers. Importantly, this growth reflects both content discovery and deeper engagement with familiar favorites. Among existing subscribers, 55% of incremental listening came from discovering new channels, with Morgan Wallen Radio alone contributing approximately 20% of the overall increase. The remaining 45% came from spending more time with channels they already enjoy. Together, these trends demonstrate how we're expanding listening while also strengthening existing habits.

We're seeing that deeper engagement across our programming lineup, including a 6% year-over-year increase in average listening time for our original news and issues content. Our technology platforms, including 360L and the SiriusXM app, are making this content easier to access and discover. Year-to-date SiriusXM app trends put us on pace for the highest average listening time and most active days per listener since the new app launched in late 2023. While technology enables discovery, our distinctive programming and talent relationships create the emotional connections at the heart of being a home for fandom. We're bringing fans closer to the artists they love through distinctive programming and extraordinary experiences. Our Dolly Parton Tribute Channel became our most listened-to artist pop-up channel of 2026, demonstrating the power of timely curated content to connect with passionate audiences.

From intimate performances with Shania Twain and John Mayer to special programming featuring Billy Joel and Talking Heads, we're creating moments that extend beyond listening. More than 110,000 people entered for a chance to attend John Mayer's performance at the Stephen Talkhouse, while Life with John Mayer has become our number one streamed artist channel. These experiences transform listening into participation, deepen fan connections, and strengthen loyalty. Sports is another powerful driver of fandom, uniting passionate communities around live programming and hometown teams. Listening to WWE Radio has grown nearly 20% since its July launch and rebrand, while monthly active sports listeners increased 4% year-over-year across our connected car and streaming platforms. Among 360L subscribers, average time spent listening to sports grew 7% year-over-year, demonstrating deeper engagement.

These third quarter gains came ahead of the NBA and NHL seasons, reinforcing the year-round appeal of our sports offering. At a time when sports viewing is increasingly fragmented, SiriusXM offers something distinctive for our subscribers. A comprehensive, curated experience connecting fans to all the games, analysis, and conversations surrounding their favorite teams together in one place. Nearly 40% of our subscribers consider live sports play-by-play important to their decision to subscribe, reinforcing its value in driving acquisition and retention. Take Philadelphia, for example. Whether following the Eagles, Phillies, 76ers or Flyers, SiriusXM connects fans to their hometown teams and familiar local voices wherever they live. For out-of-market fans, that connection extends beyond game day with year-round, 24/7 access to local sports coverage. The early response is encouraging.

Collectively, our 24 local sports channels would rank as our third-largest sports destination by number of listeners, behind only NFL Radio and ESPN Radio. We're making that experience accessible to even more fans with the launch of SiriusXM Sports Pass, an affordable subscription bringing together live play-by-play, national coverage, and trusted local voices across all four major professional leagues and more. This creates another entry point into SiriusXM, expands our addressable market, and opens opportunities for new partnerships. We're also extending our content's reach beyond our own platforms. Howard Stern's expansion to HBO Max introduces his show to new audiences while preserving the exclusive live experience for SiriusXM subscribers. At the same time, we're strengthening our industry-leading podcast portfolio with the addition of "Giggly Squad," "Serialously," and "The Bald and the Beautiful," joining top-ranked shows including "Call Her Daddy," "SmartLess," "Dateline NBC," "Mr. Ballen," and "Conan O'Brien Needs a Friend.

Giggly Squad exemplifies our ability to attract culturally influential creators with its rapidly growing fan base and sold-out multi-night run at Madison Square Garden, demonstrating the reach of its creators beyond podcasting. These partnerships expand our ability to monetize premium content across audio, video, and live experiences. That combination of premium content and expanding reach are central to our advertising strategy. With YouTube Audio, SiriusXM Media now reaches approximately 255 million unduplicated monthly listeners, up from 170 million a year ago, representing nearly 90% of Americans ages 13 and older. Early commercialization is encouraging. Initial campaigns have increased advertisers' unique reach by as much as 91%, demonstrating the incremental value of combining YouTube scale alongside our existing advertising capabilities and portfolio. As expected, most early bookings are coming from existing advertisers expanding their commitments to include YouTube Audio.