GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTDGNK
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GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD Small-Cap Virtual Conference

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Transcript

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Michael MathisonSenior Equity Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Sidoti's Virtual Small-Cap Conference. My name is Michael Mathison. I'm a Senior Equity Analyst with the firm, and I'll be your moderator today. We're fortunate to have with us the team from Genco Shipping & Trading. Before I introduce them and they get started, if I could just cover some housekeeping details. We really encourage questions. There's time left for questions at the end. Let me explain how to ask your question. You'll be asking your question by writing it in. You'll see a box at the bottom of your screen where you can ask questions. You type them in, and then I'll read them off to the presenting team, and they'll be giving you the answers. With that, let me introduce the team. We have Michael Orr with us, VP of Finance, and Peter Allen, CFO. Peter, please go ahead. Great.

Peter AllenCFO

Thanks, Michael. Starting here with an overview of Genco Shipping & Trading. Genco is a pure-play dry bulk shipping company. We own 44 vessels, and we transport commodities like iron ore, coal, grain, bauxite, and a various host of minor bulk commodities, cement, fertilizer, et cetera, across worldwide shipping routes. A lot of times, the cargoes are going from the U.S., Brazil, Australia to China, India, and various Asian economies. We have direct exposure to all minor bulk trades and all major bulk trades with the ownership of a diversified fleet. In terms of our capital allocation strategy, we deploy a low financial leverage, high dividend approach, so our net loan to value is 20%. And we like to balance that low financial leverage with high operating leverage, given our spot exposure to the dry bulk market, and it's been a rising dry bulk market.

Peter AllenCFO

That spot exposure has been beneficial to the earnings, as we'll discuss a bit later. From a corporate governance perspective, we are a top quartile rated company among shipping companies. We have no related party transactions, which is something that's very prevalent in the shipping space. And we also have a fully independent board of directors. Our market cap is about $1.2 billion, and we're listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker GNK. When we look at our overall fleet, we own 44 dry bulk vessels, an asset value at current market levels of over $1.5 billion. Those 44 ships are broken into 20 Capesize and Newcastlemax vessels, which are more driven by the iron ore trade, bauxite, and coal. They have much more upside volatility, and are really more central to China. 75% of iron ore, which is the largest dry bulk trade, goes to China.

Peter AllenCFO

And we balance that with 24 minor bulk vessels, which are our Ultramax and Supramax vessels. That's a more stable earning stream, diversified trade routes. Those are more linked to global GDP. And when we look at the overall cargo transported by Genco, in 2025, for example, we transported 22 million tons of dry bulk commodities. About 50% of that was iron ore, which goes into steel production. 14% of that was grains, and about 13% was coal. So a diversified mix of cargoes that we're carrying throughout the various global shipping routes. From a capital allocation perspective, our strategy focuses on three main pillars, which is dividends, deleveraging, and growth. From a dividend perspective, we've paid over $300 million of dividends over the last five years. We've also paid down about $120 million of debt over that time while growing the fleet by $550 million.

Peter AllenCFO

This was a strategy that we put in place in April of 2021, and we have executed in every capital allocation decision that we have done since that point in time has been along the lines of what we call our value strategy, which is our approach to capital allocation. Shipping is a highly capital-intensive business, so capital allocation is really the main focus and main topic that the management team works on on a day-to-day basis. From a dividend perspective, we do pay a variable quarterly dividend. We have paid 28 consecutive quarterly dividends, returning about $9 per share to shareholders. Importantly, in the second quarter of 2026, our dividend increased over 400% on a year-over-year basis to $0.80 per share. That is a double-digit yield based on the current stock price. It is also the highest value strategy dividend we have paid since inception.

Peter AllenCFO

The market continues to be strong, so we have actually guided to over $1 per share in dividends for each of Q3 and Q4 2026. When we look at our overall flexibility in our approach, the reason we have our low financial leverage, high dividend payout model is really centered around the balance sheet. So we have the ability to, in a good market like we are in today, dividends are paid to shareholders, earnings is very strong, and we have over $1.5 billion of assets on the water, so we are going to benefit. Furthermore, if the markets do correct or we see some downward volatility, we have the ability to step in with counter-cyclical acquisition opportunities that eventually will be accretive over time. We have done that over the years. We can see here we began to reinvest in a Capesize asset class in Q4 of 2023.

Peter AllenCFO

There was a dip in the market. We stepped in, we acquired ships, and those acquisitions have experienced an over 30% IRR since then. So those are the types of examples of us being able to be very flexible with our approach to capital allocation. Just tying a little bit with governance- Strong corporate governance is a very important thing in dry bulk shipping and shipping in general. A lot of the times there is corporate governance, related party transactions across various peers, which does hit valuation. When we look at Genco, we are a transparent U.S. filer. No related party transactions. We are the only U.S.-listed company with no related party transactions in the dry bulk space. We have an independent board of directors, and we continue to be rated in the top quartile of public shipping companies on a yearly basis.

Peter AllenCFO

A little bit on the financial highlights and performance of Genco. So the second quarter, very strong earnings, adjusted net income of $29 million or $0.65 diluted per share. EBITDA was almost $57 million. When we look at the first half of 2026 EBITDA, it is actually greater than the full year of 2025. So just a very strong earnings environment. The dividend, as I mentioned earlier, is $0.80 per share. Importantly, on our road strategy in 2025, we increased the asset base through acquisitions by 20%. The second quarter of 2026 was the first full quarter where all of those 2025 acquisitions hit. That had a significant impact on the dividend, about a 20% impact to the upside on the dividend given those acquisitions being fully operational during the second quarter.

Peter AllenCFO

And importantly, tying back to our low financial leverage, high operating leverage strategy, you can see here every $1,000 fleet-wide increase in TC, our time charter equivalent rate, it results in $16 million of annualized EBITDA or about $0.35 per share in dividend capacity. When we zoom in on the Capes, the 20 Capes that we have, which are more volatile and tend to be more upside and gap wider, every $5,000 increase in Cape time charter equivalent is about $35 million in annualized EBITDA or $0.80 per share. On our quarterly dividend policy, our target is to pay 100% of operating cash flow, less a voluntary reserve every quarter. It is a variable dividend. It does fluctuate with the market, but it is highly correlated with the Baltic Dry Index.

Peter AllenCFO

If the Baltic Dry Index increases, as we have been seeing over the last several quarters, that flows into our P&L, which flows into our dividend calculation. As you can see here on the right of the page, we paid $0.80 per share in dividends for Q2. Like I mentioned earlier, we have guided to over $1 for each of Q3 and Q4 2026. When we tie it all together, Genco's current position, we have 44 dry bulk vessels on the water today, over $1.5 billion in asset value. We have the lowest cash flow break-even rate in the peer group, $10,000 per vessel per day. We have no mandatory debt amortization.

Peter AllenCFO

That $10,000 per vessel per day compares very favorably to the current spot index rates of over $50,000 per day for Capesize vessels and over $20,000 per day for our Supramax vessels. Our strong balance sheet results in a 20% net loan-to-value ratio, among the lowest in our peer group as well. We also have a significant amount of liquidity for accretive growth opportunities with $300 million of undrawn revolver availability. A lot of liquidity, low leverage, but also a sizable fleet on the water to take advantage of growth opportunities. With that, I will turn it over to my colleague, Michael Orr, to talk about the dry bulk market.

Michael OrrVP of Finance

Thanks, Pete. As Pete mentioned, we are currently in extremely firm footing in terms of the dry bulk market. The Baltic Capesize Index is currently about $50,000 per day, while the Baltic Supramax Index is approximately $20,000 per day. September Capesize rates are on pace for their strongest month since October of 2021. For the year, the BCI has averaged approximately $33,000 per day, while the BSI has averaged approximately $16,000 per day. In terms of iron ore, Chinese imports have grown by about 5% year to date. That is on top of already record imports last year. Australian imports have also been strong, rebounding off of a weaker Q1 due to weather-related issues. In terms of Brazil, Brazilian exports are historically about 20% higher in the second half of the year as opposed to the first half of the year.

Michael OrrVP of Finance

Year to date, exports have been roughly flat. We expect a ramp-up in shipments as we enter the last part of the year. Also in terms of Brazil, a large reason why we've seen such a strong market has been the increase in Atlantic volumes on Capesize vessels. This comes in the form of iron ore from Brazil, as well as bauxite and iron ore coming from West Africa, in particular the country of Guinea. What's important is that one cargo from the Atlantic is equivalent to three cargoes coming from Australia in terms of ton miles. When you see a ramp-up in Atlantic exports, you really see a stretching of the fleet, higher utilization. That's when you really see rates jump, is when that fleet gets stretched due to those long-haul volumes from the Atlantic.

Michael OrrVP of Finance

In terms of West Africa, we see continued strong exports of bauxite to China. Chinese imports have grown by about 10% year-over-year. These are all on Capesize vessels, which is also very important. This is a relatively newer trade for the Capesize segment. It provides another option for ships ballasting to the Atlantic. In terms of iron ore, we've seen a ramp-up from the Simandou project, also in Guinea. First shipments were last November. They've been steadily ramping up to the strongest month so far in August, with over 3 million tons shipped. What's important is that almost all volumes are going to China. This is, like I said, another longer-haul option for Capes ballasting to the Atlantic. We are currently in a high likelihood of an El Niño weather pattern forming later this year and into early 2027.

Michael OrrVP of Finance

In terms of past El Niños, we've seen support for coal demand due to hotter temperatures and lower hydropower output in Asia, as well as drier conditions for exports, particularly from Brazil iron ore in the early part of the year. Additionally, the last El Niño, we saw a significant reduction in transits from the Panama Canal. We saw bulker transits fall by close to 80% from their normal average due to lower number of transits on a daily basis. Bulkers typically are jumped over by other vessels such as containers and LPG vessels. We'll see how that continues. Finally, on the supply side, we have seen an uptick in ordering. The order book is now approximately 14%-15% of the on-the-water fleet.

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