Magnite, Inc. Common StockMGNI
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Magnite, Inc. Common Stock Rosenblatt's 6th Annual Technology Summit: The Age of AI (Part II)

Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.

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Transcript

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Barton CrockettManaging Director and Senior Research Analyst

Okay. All right. Thank you everybody for joining us here at the end of the day here for our Age of AI tech conference here, the August version. We get to have a Fireside Chat with Nick Kormeluk, who is SVP of Investor Relations, and I think you are still in charge of real estate, for Magnite, which is a leading SSP, about $4 billion market cap, with a little over $300 million of debt and cash, basically. We cover the company as our top pick with a buy rating and a $40 price target for a stock recently north of $24. The shares have had some volatility and sympathy with post-SaaSpocalypse relief rally and also some positives in the latest earnings report, up about 50% year to date after a 15% dip last year.

Barton CrockettManaging Director and Senior Research Analyst

Our buy rating ascribes a ton of value, we would say about $20, to the benefits of antitrust remedies and private litigation to recover antitrust damages from Google, and another $20 for the core business at a beatable 11 times EV to EBITDA multiple of 2026 E. Magnite has reasonably, we believe, argued for $50 million of essentially sales and EBITDA lift, given limited variable costs for each one percentage point of share shift from 60% share SSP Google to 6% share Magnite, from antitrust remedies. Given that Magnite is 15% of the non-Google SSP market, we see several percentage points moving over time as behavioral remedies are implemented. Behavioral is what is key here, as that can be implemented immediately, even as appeals are outstanding versus structural, which in other words is a spinoff, which can be appealed, and so getting to that takes time.

Barton CrockettManaging Director and Senior Research Analyst

With uncertainty, it may ultimately not be the answer. We have argued that programmatic advertising is an auction market and in a fair auction, no intermediary should win 60% of the time, and it is reasonable for Magnite as the next largest player to be the biggest beneficiary of share shift from the obvious rule changes to make the auction more fair, like giving everyone equal access, equal information, and equal fee structures. A remedy decision from Leonie Brinkema had been expected by now in a proceeding that wrapped up last fall. We think we are different than other analysts in really leaning into antitrust. Some other analysts argue that this kind of thing is uninvestable, and we say no, it must be part of the thesis at a minimum for auction value, and we argue for more than that.

Barton CrockettManaging Director and Senior Research Analyst

It is important to note that any earnings lift from antitrust remedies is not in guidance or consensus, and so would be entirely incremental to the estimates. We are going to start with antitrust, and then we are going to talk about the fundamentals, which we also see to be constructive at Magnite. Nick, to start off with, just remind everyone, what did Google do to be found to have abused monopoly laws in this market?

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

Yeah. No, great question and great setup, Barton. I really appreciate this and all the rest of you that are joining in the throes of August here in summertime, especially staying in overtime in New York. Hopefully you had your shot of espresso to keep you interested and intrigued in ad tech here post 5:00 P.M. Yeah, I think from your question directly, what's Google done here to get the monopolistic ruling? This ad tech trial which Leonie Brinkema headed, really focused on what they did in their network business and how they gained an advantage in tipping the scales in their favor, from an exchange perspective and an ad server perspective. Effectively, Google took over with their DoubleClick acquisition, and subsequent to that, they basically ran the table on ad serving in the open internet marketplace.

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

They did so by making the economics almost unattractive for anybody else to be able to come in and compete. As a result, they're really the only ad server in town for non-connected television. In doing so, the economics that they gained was really done so at the exchange side and the demand side, without the publishers having any choice or control over doing so.

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

They really did prefer their exchange by providing that timing of submitting a bid, information about the auction, clearing prices, the ability to bid in unique cases where the rest of the market was held to different standards, to really shift market share in their favor. It's estimated that their market share position's about 60% in that marketplace, as Barton reflected, even though we're a 6%, 7%, 8% share of total market, our fair share is 15-ish percent, which corresponds with their 60% market share position. This really only touches the best top and mobile parts of our business per breakout, which is the Magnite DV+ side. Again, that's really the only piece that this would touch or impact. There is nothing related to this in our expectations, guidance, forecast, et cetera, conversations that we have with any of our sell-side or buy-side analysts to do so.

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

I know, and we really appreciate Barton's work on this. To date, he has not built in this to our expected numbers for 2026, 2027, 2028 and beyond. It's not something that we would stick our neck out there to describe. But we think there's a fair amount of market share that's up for grabs. What effectively, by giving the supply side or the exchange side an advantage from the ad server and kind of playing unfairly with the rest, they've been able to charge nearly a 50% take rate for servicing that inventory, while at the publisher level, making it seem like it's almost free because they don't really charge much for ad serving. By doing that's what they've done, to skew share.

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

We think in a fair competitive auction, as much as 30%, 40%, 50% of their share could be up for grabs and up to win. It depends on exactly what rules Leonie Brinkema orders or puts in place to break the monopoly. But effectively, publishers have not been with that ad-serving position, they have not had a choice to move it from them to somebody else and do it at any reasonable economics for ad-serving and to break Google's stranglehold over how they transact and how much money flows to them from Google at whatever take rates they want. Another perfect example of that bargain is that Google, as an SSP, does not even have, or an exchange, does not even have contracts with publishers, meaning they do not have to negotiate take rates. It is a take it or leave it. They either take Google's money or they do not.

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

If they choose not to, they are not sure if they would receive or cover it in any other way if they decided to exclude Google from participating. So they do not even have that choice. As a result, you would have no paper, no contracts where every other exchange that operates that has to access this inventory through Google's ad server has to basically make do with whatever Google decides to give you as an ad server, which is imperfect information, sometimes past the time that the auction is even completed and finished and a winning bid is returned, and you cannot do anything about it. So that is the monopoly is really you have no choice, no ability to negotiate fees, no alternatives to use in the marketplace, that that is truly where we believe these behavioral remedies should be aimed and really to treat things fairly.

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

There is a very simple, elegant solution by which to make this market perform fair. It is called Prebid. It is a bit of code. It is an industry standard. It is free, open source software that allows this to have Google's ad server pass the impression level or the ad request over to Prebid and then share it with Google and everybody else in the ecosystem at the same time, with the same data, with the same transparency. We believe that simple fix is truly what jump ball for amount of this volume to be able to transact openly and in a more fair manner. That is really the easiest description that we can use to identify what comes up for grabs.

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

There is a number of things on the demand side that they use to leverage and gain an advantage and how they use AdWords to buy or how they bundle this with other inventory that we also think is advantageous. But the cleanest, easiest example is simply sharing that impression, give it to us at the same time with the same amount of value, and for doing so, we think the market opens up.

Barton CrockettManaging Director and Senior Research Analyst

Okay. That is a lot, Nick, but that is great. I want to just ask a very simple question. To what degree are they still doing these things that are abusive monopoly practices in your view?

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

In our view, we have not seen anything change from the behaviors or the patterns of which Google has acted and performed. In fact, even where optically you have things that have been volunteered by Google and they admittedly said, which for our civil trial would be very damaging and very beneficial in our case, which is, "Hey, we are doing away with Last Look." Last Look was a feature that 2, 3 years ago they had in place that would let them steal any auction they wanted at the ad server level, regardless of who else competed, bid for it, won an auction for it. They could steal any impression they wanted for a penny more than what the winning bid was.

Nick KormelukSenior VP of Investor Relations

Why put everybody through the exercise of running an auction process to be able to steal it away for a penny at the end of the day? We even believed when that was taken away and advertised that they were killing Last Look, which said, "Hey, by the way, historically, we were really bad actors and we really did perform poorly." So there is a damage period of time there. There was actually a workaround because the minute they took that feature away, nothing changed.

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