GEOPARK LIMITED M&A announcement
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Ladies and gentlemen, good morning and welcome to the GeoPark Limited conference call following the announcement of the strategic entry into Venezuela. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, press star one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one a second time. If you do not have a copy of the press release, it is available at the Invest With Us section on the company's corporate website at www.geopark.com. A replay of today's call may be accessed through this website in the Invest With Us section of the GeoPark corporate website.
Before we begin, please note that certain statements contained in the results press release and on this conference call are forward-looking statements rather than historical facts, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described. With respect to such forward-looking statements, the company seeks protections afforded by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These risks include a variety of factors, including competitive developments and risk factors listed from time to time in the company's SEC reports and public releases. Those lists are intended to identify certain principle factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, but are not intended to represent a complete list of the company's business. All financial figures included herein were prepared in accordance with the IFRS and are stated in USD unless otherwise noted.
Reserves figures correspond to PRMS standards. On the call today from GeoPark is Felipe Bayón, Chief Executive Officer, Jaime Caballero Uribe, Chief Financial Officer, Martín Terrado, Chief Operating Officer, Rodrigo Dalle Fiore, Chief Exploration and Development Officer, and Maria Catalina Escobar, Shareholder Value and Capital Markets Director. Now I'll turn the call over to Mr. Felipe Bayón. Mr. Bayón, you may begin.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. On September 2, we announced our strategic entry into Venezuela through the acquisition of the Bare Block, a large-scale producing asset in the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt, one of the largest hydrocarbon resource basins in the world. We are very excited about this opportunity, both for what it can mean for GeoPark, and for the role we believe we can play in the reactivation of Venezuela's energy sector and for our shareholders. I want to acknowledge both PDVSA and Grupo Gilinski for the role they have played in bringing this opportunity together and for the confidence placed in GeoPark. Over the last several months, our teams have spent significant time together, including field visits and understanding the asset, the operating environment, and the contractual framework.
Bare brings together characteristics that are very difficult to find in a single opportunity: exceptional resource scale, a long production history, significant infrastructure already in place, and a substantial redevelopment potential. This is a producing brownfield asset, not a greenfield exploration opportunity. Our role is to bring capital, technology, reservoir management, and operating discipline to that existing asset base, progressively restore production, and unlock more of its potential. That plays very directly to what we know how to do at GeoPark. At the same time, we understand very clearly that questions remain around Venezuela. Over the last few months, we have carefully evaluated the execution, capital, and infrastructure requirements, sanctions, contractual protections, and the broader operating environment. We believe the transaction's structure and development plan addresses these concerns and create unique opportunities within a disciplined framework.
Our goal today is to explain why we believe Bare can be a game changer for GeoPark and create significant long-term value for our shareholders while contributing to the reactivation of Venezuela's energy sector. Let me start with the main message that I would like you to take away from today's presentation. The first is the opportunity itself. GeoPark is establishing an early and meaningful position in Venezuela through a 25-year production participation contract with PDVSA. GeoPark will have operating control of the Bare Block. We believe an early entrant position in the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt with the right contractual framework creates a very significant opportunity for us. Second, the quality and scale of the asset. Bare has approximately 15.7 billion barrels of oil original in place. It is a producing brownfield asset with decades of operating history. Third is how we intend to develop it.
We begin with what is already there, existing wells, reactivations, workovers, artificial lift optimization, and critical infrastructure, and progressively moving to larger drilling and thermal recovery phases. The investment plan is phased and support the production ranges we are presenting while maintaining capital discipline. Fourth, the transaction preserves our financial flexibility. This is an all-stock acquisition with no upfront cash payment. That allows us to retain the cash and financing capacity we need to develop Bare, while continuing to invest both in Colombia and Vaca Muerta. Fifth is the value for our shareholders. The transaction recognizes GeoPark equity at $12.22 per share, a premium to recent trading, while the acquisition economics reflect an independently assessed value for Bare. The tender offer committed to by Grupo Gilinski also provides our existing shareholders with an additional liquidity option.
Finally, it is important to highlight that our investment case does not depend on broader normalization of Venezuela. We have evaluated the opportunity based on the asset, the contractual framework, and the operating environment that exists today. This slide shows what Bare can mean for GeoPark over time. Under the 25-year CPP, GeoPark will operate Bare and hold a 65% net working interest. Based on the current development plan, that represents approximately 400 million barrels of cumulative net production to GeoPark over this 25-year contractual life of the asset. For a company of our current size, that changes the duration and scale of our resource base in a very meaningful way. The other important point is how Bare fits with what we already have. Colombia remains our foundation and cash flow engine, while Vaca Muerta is our growth engine, with world-class unconventional resources and short-cycle development opportunities.
Venezuela adds a different and complementary element through a long-duration heavy oil redevelopment platform in the Orinoco Belt. Together, we have conventional production and cash generation in Colombia and conventional growth in Argentina, and a large brownfield redevelopment opportunity in Venezuela, with different resources, development cycles, and cash flow profiles that create a stronger and more advantaged company. We produce approximately 28,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025. With continued growth across the existing portfolio and the development of Bare, we see a pathway towards approximately 75,000 to 85,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, and a company capable of generating adjusted EBITDA of around $1.2 billion by 2030. The scale changes, but the strategy does not. We remain a Latin American operator, and our objective remains unchanged: protect what we have and return to growth by deploying capital where we can generate attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Now let me spend a little more time on the asset itself. Bare has approximately 15.7 billion barrels of original oil in place, more than 700 million barrels already produced, and approximately 1,100 existing wells, and a current production of approximately 11,000 barrels of oil per day. For us, that production history matters enormously. Bare has already demonstrated that it can produce at significant scale. With such a significant original oil in place, relatively modest improvements in recovery can translate into a very significant additional production and value. The current recovery factor is only around 4%-5%, so there is room to grow. We also have a large installed base of wells and infrastructure that gives us different ways to begin improving performance before we move into the more capital-intensive phases of the development.
The size of the resource matters only if it is matched by credible development plan, and our approach to Bare is intentionally phased. The first phase, from 2026 through 2030, is about restarting and reactivating the existing asset base. We plan approximately 400 to 450 well reactivations, around 100 workovers, approximately 30 horizontal wells, optimizing the artificial lift systems, and rehabilitation of critical infrastructure. Under this plan, gross production grows from today's level towards more than 56,000 barrels per day by 2030. The first phase gives us a very practical way to develop the field with existing wells, understand their integrity and performance, identify infrastructure bottlenecks, and learn more about the reservoir as we progressively increase activity. From 2031 onwards, we move into a build phase with additional horizontal drilling, workovers, and thermal recovery. Production increases towards approximately 90,000 barrels of oil per day.
Later, the remote recovery becomes more important as we seek to increase recovery and sustain the production plateau before the asset moves into a long-duration harvest phase focused on reservoir management and maximizing recovery. The investment plan shown on this slide supports the production ranges we are presenting to you today. This slide is really about how we fund the growth. In 2026 and 2027, the portfolio absorbs the early investment in Bare while Colombia continues to generate cash and Vaca Muerta continues to grow. From 2028 onwards, as Bare production and EBITDA build, the combined portfolio moves into positive and growing free cash flow. Venezuela CapEx rises from approximately $10 million in 2026 to around $131 million by 2030, but against a much larger EBITDA contribution. The investment plan supports a production ramp without displacing our priorities, both in Colombia and Argentina.
We also enter this development period with approximately $700 million of liquidity and committed or negotiated financing sources, including approximately $310 million of cash in hand. That is why the three assets are complementary financially and strategically. By 2030, production has the potential to be nearly three times our 2025 level, and adjusted EBITDA could be approximately four times larger. Based on preliminary estimates and subject to confirmation through an independent reserves report, our 2P reserve base could increase from approximately 121 million barrels to 240 to 260 million barrels of oil equivalent. It is important to understand what that reserve indication represents. It is a point-in-time estimate associated with the initial development phase, subject to the appropriate certification processes. It is not a measure of Bare's ultimately reserved potential over the 25-year contract.
As the development plan advances and additional activities incorporated into independent evaluations, we expect the reserve estimate to evolve as such. Equally important, our operational breakeven declines under the plan from approximately $51 per barrel of oil equivalent in 2025 to some $28 per barrel in 2030. In summary, the larger scale and the quality of the underlying barrels that we are capturing with this transaction make GeoPark more resilient, more efficient, and financially stronger. Furthermore, a larger production and reserve base also gives us greater relevance to investors, service companies, technology providers, and capital markets. Diversification provides more alternatives for capital allocation, while a lower breakeven improves resilience across different commodity price environments.
As mentioned earlier, by 2030, GeoPark has the potential to produce approximately 75,000 to 85,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, generate around $1.2 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and hold approximately 240 to 260 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2P reserves. At that scale, GeoPark would sit in a very different peer group. While the scale changes, the focus remains on exceptional hydrocarbon systems: the Llanos Basin in Colombia, Vaca Muerta in Argentina, and the Orinoco Belt in Venezuela. Together, they give us exposure to conventional, unconventional, and heavy oil resources across different development cycles and provide different cash flow characteristics. We remain an operator focused on Latin America, technical excellence, and disciplined value creation. Let me now turn the call over to Jaime to discuss the transaction structure, value equation, and path to closing.
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