Applied Materials Inc Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
Transcript
Preview the first fifteen paragraphs, organized by speaker.
Okay. Welcome. Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference. My name is Jim Schneider. I am the semiconductor analyst here at Goldman Sachs. It is my pleasure to welcome Applied Materials and CEO Gary Dickerson to the stage today.
Welcome, Gary. Thank you, Jim.
Glad to be here. I think it is fair to say that the view of the market is certainly different than we were on your stage last year at this time.
Clearly, we see almost everything being constrained around AI. You commented on much stronger demand visibility that you are seeing from your customers. Can you maybe help frame the level of demand and visibility you are seeing right now, either in terms of duration of customer forecast or size of your backlog?
Yeah. As you said, AI, especially data center, is an enormous driver for our business. One statistic I thought was interesting, if you look at leading-edge foundry, you go back a few years ago, smartphone wafer starts were 4 times larger than data center. Today, they are one to one, and in a couple of years, it will be two to one data center versus smartphone. For sure, AI and data center are by far the biggest drivers. Relative to the technologies that are critical for AI data center, the fastest-growing segments, 80% of wafer fab equipment growth this year is leading foundry logic, DRAM, including High-Bandwidth Memory and advanced packaging. Again, that is 80% of the wafer fab equipment growth this year, and we see that same mix in 2027 and going forward. Relative to our customers, we have been continually increasing our revenue forecast for 2026.
In February, we said greater than 20% revenue growth. In May, we said greater than 30% revenue growth. Now we're approaching 40% revenue growth in what we've communicated here recently, and both our near-term and longer-term outlook has been growing. One of the big drivers this year is agentic AI, so you have agents consuming tokens and compute, and that's driving increase in our longer-term WFE forecast, especially around CPUs and DRAM. We've seen that continual increase. Then relative to all of our discussions with customers, Applied is in a great position because all of those fastest-growing segments of the market are areas where Applied has clear leadership, and we're gaining share through those inflections. Customers want to make sure that from an operation, supply chain, capability standpoint, we're ready. Our trained service engineers are ready.
We do have this eight-quarter forecast, rolling eight-quarter forecast, and longer-term commitments from our customers. Again, that has continually went up, as we progress through the years. We even have discussions with customers all the way through 2030. My view is AI compute demand is going to remain very strong for many years going forward into the future. I look at Applied Materials and the way we're using AI, in innovation, product development, operations, supply chain. We have thousands of engineers in our field operations, service, and process engineers, and it's just a game changer. Then for me, what is most important, we will drive tremendous productivity improvements inside Applied Materials, but way more important than that is our ability to bring multi-billion-dollar products to market faster and also very valuable service innovations to market faster.
I think, again, AI is the biggest technology inflection I've ever seen in my life. If you look going forward with agentic physical AI, again, you're going to see increased compute demand, and the need for compute innovation tokens per second per watt has also never been greater. The position for Applied enabling these inflections is also a great tailwind for the company.
Great. Now, Gary, you've seen a lot of cycles over your career for this industry. How does the current demand environment compare with past historical cycles you've seen over your career? Is there any sort of warning sign at all that rhymes with past sort of cycle peaks that you've seen?
Yeah. I think it is pervasiveness of demand. I look through my career, I am an engineer, been innovating at three different companies, in the industry. I have never seen a driver that is as broad and pervasive as what we are seeing today. Certainly, when we went to mobile social media, everybody has a computer and a camera in their pocket. That increased the demand. AI is a whole different level of demand driver. When we look out for a number of years, again, it is just so disruptive and fundamental to every single industry. My view is that companies that are not adopting this technology will be left behind. The growth, agentic AI is adding additional WFE growth going forward. Physical AI in the future will add more compute demand going forward. I do not really spend time worrying about macro effects over a near term.
Again, for me, it is very clear this compute demand is going to be strong secular growth over many years going forward.
Yeah. Your great customers are incredibly profitable right now, as profitable as I have ever seen in my career, certainly.
Yeah. Your customers' customers who are driving the ultimate spending on chips.
They are spending well over $1 trillion run rate at this point. That appears to be moving higher, but many of those same companies are tapping capital markets just to sustain that current level of CapEx. How do you think about the ultimate returns for the AI value chain as you see it, big picture? Do you see any kind of systematic risk that could cause a pullback in demand?
I think the value creation, to me, is crystal clear. As I mentioned, for Applied, we are bringing to market products that are worth billions of USD. So that time to market is extremely high ROI. Another area that I would say that we are getting tremendous pull, higher than any point in my career, is not just for performance innovation. Again, Applied is the leader in material innovation and all of these fastest-growing parts of the market being driven by AI. That is critical for our customers for design wins. So we are co-innovating with them on all those architectures for generations out in the future. The other big driver, larger than I have seen, is in yield and output innovation. So our customers, as you can imagine, every incremental chip that they can ship is worth an enormous amount of money for those customers.
FULL TRANSCRIPT
Continue the full translated transcript in StockNow.
Access every statement, the English original, and speaker-by-speaker history with StockNow Pro.
View the full transcript with ProCall participants
2 people spoke on this call — only 1 are shown here.
PARTICIPANT LIST
View participant details in StockNow.
Log in to see executives and analysts, their roles, and complete speaking history.
Log in to view all participantsKeep exploring
