Denali Therapeutics Inc. Common StockDNLI
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Denali Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock 12th Annual Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference

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Transcript

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Josh SchimmerAnalyst

Josh Schimmer from the Cantor Equity Biotech research team on the main stage with Denali Therapeutics and for good reason. I am joined by Ryan Watts, President and Chief Executive Officer. Congrats on the hard work that culminated in the approval of AVLAYAH. Off to a good launch start. Maybe just initially frame where Denali is in the evolution of the company and maybe some aspects of Denali that you think investors should be paying more attention to but aren't.

Ryan WattsPresident and CEO

Yeah, okay, great. Great to be here. Thanks, Josh, and appreciate the opportunity to take the stage with you and to discuss an exciting time at Denali. I think the best way to frame Denali right now is that there are really four major aspects. The first is that we have our first product in AVLAYAH, as you pointed out. It has been a very exciting year to launch our first medicine. That product ends up, for us, validating the platform. So we have product and then platform, and that platform has now led to a broad portfolio. We are going to get into some details, and I think the simplest way to view our portfolio is the enzyme replacement therapies, and then we have Alzheimer's as well, and a number of key readouts coming in in 2027.

Ryan WattsPresident and CEO

The fourth point, so we have product, platform, pipeline, and the fourth point is having the capital now to execute into 2029, so about $1.1 billion in cash. Obviously we are spending a significant amount of our resources on the portfolio. We have, of course, early signs of a strong launch with AVLAYAH. But I think what is probably not appreciated, as you pose that question is the fact that this platform has the ability to deliver now a number of products. We have five additional clinical stage programs with a lot of data coming out in 2027. So it is clearly an exciting time.

Ryan WattsPresident and CEO

Obviously, we launched this product ourselves, as a company to go from discovery to development and now to delivering medicines to patients. I think, Josh, as we were just commenting before the fireside chat, it is really rewarding to be part of the patient community and actually delivering a medicine.

Josh SchimmerAnalyst

Always a little awkward to turn patients into numbers, but it is kind of what we do and need to do. As we think about the current indication and launch of AVLAYAH and the addressable patient population, the kind of revenue numbers that may support, maybe you can help frame that for us.

Ryan WattsPresident and CEO

Right. If you look at the label, it's essentially pediatric patients. The key term in the label which really differentiates it, I think, from obviously the standard of care is neurologic manifestations. This doesn't mean neuronopathic and non-neuronopathic, it means that the medicine is really approved for neurologic manifestations, which represents essentially all Hunter patients. For example, even attenuated patients have hearing loss, as I think one of the probably more powerful pieces of data that was published in our New England Journal article earlier this year. We're seeing benefit in hearing, obviously cognition, behavior, and it's using cerebrospinal fluid, heparan sulfate as the biomarker for this accelerated approval, but a lot of data supporting the fact that that was predictive of clinical benefit. If you look at the pediatric population, it's about 375 of the 500 patients.

Ryan WattsPresident and CEO

Importantly, every year there's about 30 new Hunter patients. This is all just U.S. So worldwide, there's 2,000 worldwide, but we're just talking about U.S. numbers here with the U.S. accelerated approval. You can think about what that spectrum looks like. There's the newly diagnosed, there's the patients that are eagerly awaiting, there are those that are just about to become adult. There are many patients that have been on, for example, intrathecal delivery, and who have been also eagerly awaiting. There are older patients. That's how really the frame, the total patient population, about 375 patients today, the prevalent population, that are eligible for AVLAYAH.

Josh SchimmerAnalyst

I guess almost by definition, because they're pediatric patients, they will also be lower weights?

Ryan WattsPresident and CEO

That is right. There is a complexity, and I think this is where what we basically in our first quarter, we described obviously the revenue, and then we have given a revenue target for the next quarter and likely for the fourth quarter as well, early on. Part of that is because it is really complex, right? It is weight-based dosing. You have very small, young, pediatric, newly diagnosed, 10 kilogram. Then all the way up to 16-year-olds. That is exactly right. It is weight-based dosing, and there is a pretty broad spectrum.

Josh SchimmerAnalyst

The dose is also, I guess, ramped up to a steady state.

Josh SchimmerAnalyst

Right. As we think about the performance in the second quarter, very good start, $3.6 million, guiding to $10 million-$12 million now in the third quarter.

Josh SchimmerAnalyst

Is that primarily the continuation of the patients to a higher dose in a full quarter, or did you incorporate a meaningful number of new patients coming on the therapy?

Ryan WattsPresident and CEO

Yeah. It is definitely a meaningful number of new patients coming on, but it is also the dose escalation, and it is exactly the reason why I think we took the unusual step of just guiding towards a revenue because of that complexity. The question itself sort of highlights the complexity. I think importantly, the vast majority of patients who have started are not crossing over from our clinical trials. That will, by end of year, most of the patients that are in the phase I/II will have crossed over to commercial product, but this first real set of revenue is coming majority from new patient starts. Most of those are switches. Most of those are patients who have been on Elaprase and are switching to AVLAYAH.

Josh SchimmerAnalyst

Right. If you are targeting the 370-500 Hunter syndrome patients, are they essentially all on Elaprase? Would a patient not be on Elaprase for some reason Yeah but come on to AVLAYAH?

Ryan WattsPresident and CEO

It is actually 90%-95%, so almost all of them are on Elaprase. I think the exception is usually end of life. If you think of how this disease progresses, even with standard of care, you have different severities of mutations, and the mutations that are the most severe, even on standard of care, the average lifespan is between 15 and 20 years of age. There are some patients that are no longer on treatment because they are palliative care at that point.

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