Natera, Inc. Common Stock 2026 Global Healthcare Conference
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Just giving a quick snapshot of the company coming off a Q2 print. What went right in Q2? Anything you'd point out to investors about this quarter?
Yeah, we had a very strong quarter. All-time record revenue growth. We grew something like 40% year-on-year on the top line, which is quite amazing just given the scale of the revenue that we're at now. Another strong gross margin quarter, made progress on leverage on OpEx. Record units across the board, had a very strong women's health quarter. Usually Q2, as many of you know, is a softer quarter for us seasonally. Panorama NIPT was up mid to high single digits year-on-year. Carrier screening was up low double digits year-on-year on volumes, and on both metrics, we did a little better than that on revenues. That was a really outstanding outcome driven by a couple of key product features that we've launched over the last year.
Prospera transplant business continues to ramp, continues to be a secular transition in our favor, in favor of cell-free DNA testing for transplant patients. Then, of course, Signatera had an all-time record growth quarter. The prior sequential growth units quarter had been Q1, and we did something like 25,000 growth units, 24,000 growth units, something like that. We did 34,000 growth units in Q2. That was somewhat aided by weather. The compare versus Q1 was a little bit deflated just by some bad weather in the Midwest in Q1. Yeah, even taking effect of that outstanding momentum in that business fueled by all the things coming together. You've got outstanding clinical trial data continuing to read out, getting into guidelines in muscle-invasive bladder cancer.
Just more generally, I think we're benefiting from a generalized wave of adoption for MRD as it increasingly becomes part of the standard of care for cancer, which is very gratifying to say, as I've been coming to the Baird Global Healthcare Conference for 11 years, and we've gone from this being a glimmer of an idea to being a reality. So happy to be here.
Yeah, it's a great overview. Maybe focusing on Signatera units, which is what everyone has been focusing on. You added 34,000 tests last Yeah quarter sequentially against the prior record of 25,000 tests.
You told us the right way to model this is use the trailing four-quarter average of sequential adds, and it's now 25,000 to 26,000 sequentially. Is that the right bar for us going forward, and how do you think about the shape of that from here?
Yeah, I think that's the right bar. I think that's the way that we measure things internally. The reason why we do the rolling four quarters average is that just smooths out all these random events in terms of number of receiving days or holidays or weather or anything like that. If you're willing to do that, the growth in units seems very smooth. It looks like it's just up and to the right. It does give effect for the fact that this is a repeat monitoring test. So you have this kind of installed base, new patients starting every quarter, but then they stay with you for a number of years and deliver repeat tests over time. So that rolling four quarters average continually gets bigger, and I support that. I think that's something that the business can continue to clear that bar.
It does smooth out randomness quarter to quarter as I described.
You flagged weather depressed first quarter a little bit of the base.
Yeah That is why 34K looked a little bit larger.
Stripping out weather, what would you call clean underlying adds for this past quarter?
It is hard to measure weather exactly. It is a judgment call. Is it 5,000, 6,000 units that we missed in Q1 that ended up showing up in Q2? It is something in that range.
Yeah. That does get you back to the bar, a good bar, I think, being the rolling four quarters average again.
Yeah. You attributed Signatera drivers in the quarter to a few things. It was the FDA halo effect, 2025 commercial and medical affairs hires reaching productivity there, the cadence of data readouts, a little bit of weather benefit as well. If you had to rank all of those, how would you essentially rank them by what contributed the most to the quarter?
It's hard to know, because when the units come in the door, they don't come attached with a note describing which of those factors drove the order. I'll just summarize a couple or expand on a couple of those drivers. So at the beginning of 2025, having been intentionally subscale in the commercial kind of sales staffing effort, we decided to go on a large sales force expansion. So we had something like 150 to 200 reps, something in that zip code, selling Signatera, and we're now north of 300 reps. We got most of those people hired in the first half of 2025, and we take a long time to see the reps get to full productivity. It takes 9 to 12 months.
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