Cencora, Inc. Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
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Morning everyone, and welcome to the 24th Annual Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference. I'm Erin Wright, healthcare services analyst at Morgan Stanley. For more important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. This morning, we're happy to kick off the healthcare services portion of the day with Cencora. We have the CEO, Bob Mauch, as well as CFO, Eva Boratto, our new CFO.
Yeah. Welcome. We'll go ahead and get started because we have a lot to get through this morning.
Bigger picture, you posted strong results in the fiscal third quarter report, with drivers across the core distribution business continuing here, especially across specialty. You're proactively also optimizing your business, prioritizing some of those areas where you have those core competencies in faster-growing areas such as specialty. You're calling for healthcare solutions, AOI growth of 14.5%-15.5% growth, tracking really nicely ahead of the long-term profile. How do you think about. There's different moving pieces, I guess, with OneOncology, but how do you think about the momentum continuing into fiscal 2027 and beyond?
Yeah. Thanks, Erin. First of all, thanks for having us here. I'm excited to be joined by Eva, who's been a terrific addition to our team, and we're excited to talk to you about Cencora today. As you said, Erin, strong growth really due to the positioning that we have within the specialty pharma marketplace. So that's in health systems, that's in community physicians. We've deployed capital to expand our capabilities in those areas, and as you said, we're also focusing our portfolio to make sure that our time investments are aligned with our strategy over the long run.
In terms of momentum, as we look into 2027, we're confident that the trends will continue and that we're very confident in our long-term growth algorithm, our specialty-centric, pharmaceutical-centric strategy, and also the areas that we're continuing to execute to make sure that we're very well positioned in our U.S. segment as well as our international segment.
What are some of those moving pieces that we think about in terms of into 2027, just as we're thinking about from a financial modeling standpoint?
Yeah. I think as we look forward to 2027, as you can appreciate, Erin, we're in the midst of our planning process now, so we'll certainly have more to say about 2027 on our earnings call. But a couple of things to call out is we'll have another four months benefit of the OneOncology acquisition that we experienced this year. Two, our investment in MSOs and the growth in specialty, we expect will continue to perform well, and we'll have more to say about our guidance in November.
Okay. That's fair. Let's switch gears a little bit to utilization. It's been a topic of conversation across this conference. It has been relatively strong in terms of the utilization environment that we've seen for quite some time now. Can this continue? How would you characterize the nature of prescription volume, utilization trends? Is this the new normal in terms of utilization at these levels?
Yeah. I think, Erin, I'll go backwards to go forward a little bit, right? If you go back to 2025, right, you saw utilization trends elevated. They were outside of our growth algorithm, and the company before I got here had commented that we didn't expect those trends to continue. This fiscal year for us, you saw some pressure, I would say, particularly in the January-February timeframe, supported by the IQVIA data. We saw those utilization trends rebound in March and continue through the third quarter in a consistent manner, and that's what our outlook for Q4 represents. Listen, specialty is an increasing part of our business. We believe we're in the right areas as we're focusing on distribution, but also our presence in MSOs in oncology and retina, and believe we have confidence in our long-term growth algorithm, as Bob Mauch said.
Okay. One of the other investor questions we have been getting of late, so I have to ask, is just the relationship with Walgreens and some of the dynamics that are happening there. I guess, can you quantify the magnitude and presumably small, but what the rationale is or why some of the volume may be shifting here? It sounds like this is the natural nature of some of these contracts, but will this continue in terms of the volume shift into fiscal 2027? You used the term "began to move" outside of the company. I just want to see if there is more to come, or does that suggest that there is more to come, or how do we think about this?
Yeah. Thanks, Erin. I will start, and then I will hand it over to Eva. It is an important question. I mean, Walgreens is a really important customer to us, a long-term strategic relationship that goes back more than a decade. On the specifics of the volume move that we disclosed, and you hinted to this, Erin, which is true, it is not uncommon within our industry for very large buyers to have small pieces of their business with other wholesalers. We do have the prime vendor agreements, which ensures that the contract is solid over a long period of time. But there can be smaller ins and outs over the life of that contract, which again, is absolutely normal.
What was abnormal in this case is that it came out through a research report, and our team quickly identified the need to clarify, because what we did not want is to have any investor confusion. We did not want to have people assume it was too big or nothing at all, or anything in between. We wanted to be specific. So the team made a great decision to put out the 8-K, and make sure that we clarified the small scope of that. I think it is important to say that, as we look forward, that Walgreens has been an important strategic partner for us over a long period of time. We have an excellent relationship with their new team, and we will continue to work very productively with them.
Okay. Bob, if I could just add, just again, to level set on the factual context, right?
The vast majority of the business is in the primary contract. This change, which became effective July 1st, basically, was included in our Q4 guidance that we provided back on our earnings call in August 3. There will be a wraparound impact into 2027 of the remaining three quarters, and I will come back to what Bob said. Overall, this is an important customer. As you look at our Q4 guidance, our expectations are to deliver accelerating growth despite the impact of this.
Okay. Let's switch gears to specialty then, I guess. Can you provide an update on just trends across the specialty business, including MSOs, health systems, community physician practices? Can you talk about the long-term growth and margin profile of some of these businesses, and what's feasible in terms of the opportunity to potentially increase your exposure in specialty over time?
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