The Timken CompanyTKR
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The Timken Company Morgan Stanley's 14th Annual Laguna Conference

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Transcript

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Angel CastilloAnalyst

Perfect. Thank you all, and good afternoon. It's my pleasure today to have Lucian Boldea, CEO and President of Timken, as well as Mike DiCenza, EVP and CFO of Timken. Before we just get started here, just a quick disclaimer. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley representatives. With that, again, thank you, gentlemen, for joining me.

Lucian BoldeaCEO and President

Thank you. Thanks for having us.

Angel CastilloAnalyst

It would be great to just start out with the Elevate to Outperform strategy that you laid out at Investor Day. A pretty significant step up in growth margins, earnings profile through 2028. Just for those that may be less familiar with the shift in strategy and, Lucian, what you've laid out in terms of the key pillars, the targets, where you want to take the business here, both through 2028 and your vision for longer term. Can you just give us a walk-through some of those basics?

Lucian BoldeaCEO and President

Absolutely. First of all, thank you for having us. It is really great to be here. When we look at Elevate to Outperform and why we launched the strategy and what we are trying to accomplish with it really deploys this 80/20 mindset as a foundational way of approaching and solving the problem. The problem that we are trying to solve is really to accelerate profitable growth, expand margins, and then drive value to shareholders as a result. We do this by really focusing on three different pillars. First of all, our portfolio. Really holding ourselves accountable to be a disciplined and active portfolio manager of our own portfolio. Making sure we analyze that portfolio on a frequent basis and we ask ourselves what belongs. We apply an 80/20 mindset to that. What do we need more of, what do we need less of, and really manage that actively.

Lucian BoldeaCEO and President

We then look at the markets that we focus on and make sure that we have appropriate revenue exposure to high-growth markets so that we can really outperform by having the market tailwind help us outperform. Last but not least, there is a third pillar that involves regional penetration. Our business is unique from the standpoint that our Industrial Motion portfolio of businesses that represents over a third of the company is really mostly constituted of regional businesses. Really being able to expand these businesses from one region to another affords kind of, I call it a bucket of self-help, but really revenue that we can generate growth from, that we can then help ourselves outperform above the market.

Angel CastilloAnalyst

No, that is very helpful. I tend to think about Timken as a firm that is already made a lot of transformation going from low teens EBITDA margin to high teens EBITDA margin, and you are proposing taking the business into the 20s, right? This 80/20 is a big aspect of that. I was hoping you could help us kind of understand maybe a little bit more into that 80/20, unpack that a bit more in terms of gross profit margins impact, working capital needs impact, or just even at the operating culture level within the firm. What does this mean to Timken?

Lucian BoldeaCEO and President

Yeah. I will ask Mike also to offer his view here, but I think if I step back from overall the goal that we have laid out at Investor Day just a few months ago, we said we are going to structurally improve margins by 500 basis points. That is a significant number because it is not by sometime out there, it is by 2028. The clock starts pretty soon on 2028, so we are not that far away. We understand the timing. But we laid out a very credible roadmap on how we get there, and it is really across the three pillars. It is really looking at structurally improving margins from belts, then it is looking at the markets and outperforming with the markets, and then finally, the regional penetration.

Lucian BoldeaCEO and President

Underpinning all that, which is what I'd like Mike to comment on, is your 80/20 question of what we can do to really support the cost structure to be able to do that.

Mike DiscenzaEVP and CFO

Yeah. Thanks, Lucian. A couple of things on that. First of all, we're well underway. As you said, we've launched 80/20. By the end of this quarter, we'll have more than 75% of our organization trained and initiatives underway. Some of those initiatives that started earlier are going to start producing results. You'll see that show up in margin uplift as early as the first half of next year. Certainly our own help on 80/20, just from the initiatives that are underway, pricing, et cetera. Secondly, we're getting to the point now where we're looking at our cost structures and going through the Zero Up process. Anyone familiar with 80/20, we're now looking at our cost structures, identifying where simplification creates capacity, if you will, and it frees up resources. Part of our growth strategy is around redeploying those resources into the growth areas.

Mike DiscenzaEVP and CFO

Of course, it provides an opportunity for margin uplift as well. Next year, we'll be looking at how to carry those simplification savings into the business, reinvest where it makes sense, and then look to expand margins as well. Then you mentioned the last thing, working capital. We do believe there's a working capital unlock through simplification. In our 2028 targets, we communicated we thought there was about 1% of sales per year kind of unlock on working capital to sales. We do think there's an opportunity to generate cash as part of this 80/20 initiative as well.

Angel CastilloAnalyst

You mentioned pricing as one of those aspects or those levers that you can ultimately pull with 80/20. Can you just help us understand how does the deployment of that play out? Is it across the business as a whole? Is it in very specific with specific customers? Just ultimately how we should think about the flow-in of that in the P&L.

Lucian BoldeaCEO and President

Yeah, look, I appreciate that question. I think often when people hear 80/20, it is called 80/20 and not 20/80 for a reason because the 80s is why you do it. That is where you want to focus, and the 20s is where the resources come from so that you can afford to take better care of the 80s. Pricing is one of those avenues. If you think about the world of 80s customers and 20s customers and 80s products and 20s products, we have been very transparent to share that in our Engineered Bearings business. Our half of our customers, our bottom half of our customers account for less than 1% of the revenue, and half of our products account for less than 1%, about 1% of the revenue. Now you might say, "Well, that is easy.

Lucian BoldeaCEO and President

Why do not you take action immediately?" Because you have to look at it by quadrant, and your large customers buying your fast-moving product, you want more of that. You want to delight those customers. You want to have better delivery terms. You want to really take care of and grow that business. Your small customers buying the one-off products, that is not business we will ever be able to be profitable with. That is business that you have to, over time, shed in an appropriate way. Your small customers buying fast-moving products, that is why you have channel partners. That is why you have e-commerce. That is why you have distributors. You ask them to consolidate purchases, and so on. You manage them that way.

Lucian BoldeaCEO and President

Your large customers buying your one-off products, that is where you have to have that conversation very carefully because some of those small products may be very valuable to your large customers. You have to have a logical transition. Treating these quadrants differently is key. But then inside those quadrants, you have certain places where price increases are absolutely one way to do that, one way to, I would not say test for the value, but to make sure you are appropriately getting paid for the service that you are offering. Because one of the things, just fact of life, your accounting systems will never be able to keep up appropriately with allocating sufficient cost to the customer that literally places a $100 or $200 order versus a customer that is a $20 million customer.

Lucian BoldeaCEO and President

You cannot allocate enough cost to the small customer with normal cost allocation, which means your profit will always be overstated on the small customer and understated on the large ones. You have to account for that and prices wanted to do that. We are looking at price increases for those quadrants to be able to get them to at least some better return, but over time, really push the message of, okay, maybe we are not the best supplier for those really one-off products.

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