British American Tobacco p.l.c. American Depositary Shares, American Depositary Shares, each representing one Ordinary Share CMD 2026
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
Transcript
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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the BAT 2026 Capital Markets Day. I am Victoria Buxton, Group Head of Investor Relations. I am delighted that so many of you are joining us here today, both in person and online. Thank you for taking the time to hear more about BAT's transformation. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to the following cautionary statements, which apply throughout the day. Unless otherwise stated, our comments will focus on constant currency-adjusted measures, which include adjustments related to profit from our Canadian combustibles business. Average year-to-date share data is to July 2026 versus full year 2025 average. We are not expecting any fire alarms today, so if you hear one, please exit via the doors at the back or front of the room and make your way downstairs to exit the building the same way that you came in.
BAT's sustainable transformation continues to gain momentum. Over the next two days, we will share our vision for the future of BAT and demonstrate why we believe BAT is best positioned to win in the growing global nicotine industry, powered by our world-class capabilities, leading brands, broad footprint, and exceptional people. We will start the presentation shortly. At 12:00 P.M., those of you attending in person will join interactive exhibitions while the webcast will be paused. On the back of your badges, you will see key event times, as well as two labels, as shown in the example on screen. Your day one label indicates which group you are in today for our innovation, digital, and trade marketing interactive exhibitions. I will return later to share more detail on these. Your day two label indicates your group for our Reynolds Operation Center site visit tomorrow.
In addition, at the end of the coffee and lunch breaks, you will hear a bell or a chime. Please take this as a signal to return to the auditorium. I am now delighted to hand over to David Waterfield, President of Reynolds American. David has led and grown some of the group's most successful businesses around the world, and most recently, has led our turnaround in the U.S. David, over to you. Thank you, Victoria.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Capital Markets Day in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. It is a privilege to host you at the home of Reynolds American, in the city we have called home since our founding in 1875. Let me begin with the significance of where we are meeting today. Winston-Salem is a city shaped by reinvention. Its economy has evolved from its traditional industrial roots into a more diverse center for advanced manufacturing, healthcare, biotechnology, financial services, and research. Today, the city is home to approximately a quarter of a million people and anchors the broader Piedmont Triad region, which has over 1.7 million people. Its universities and colleges provide an important foundation for talent, connecting education and commercial enterprise with the needs of a changing economy.
Reynolds has been part of this community story for more than 150 years, and as Winston-Salem has grown and evolved, so have we. That makes Winston-Salem a particularly fitting place for today's conversation. Since 1875, Reynolds has helped shape this community through investment, employment, innovation, and long-term civic partnership. We are proud of that history, but our focus is firmly on what comes next. From this foundation, Reynolds is transforming and investing to deliver sustainable growth in the next era of the U.S. nicotine market. We are pleased to have you with us and look forward to sharing more about our business, our people, and the opportunity ahead for BAT. I will now hand over to our chief executive, Tadeu Marroco.
Thank you. The world is changing faster than ever.
Consumer expectations evolve. Technology accelerates. Entire industries are being reshaped. Right now, leadership belongs to those who anticipate change, transforming with confidence, executing on a global scale. Nicotine value is growing, an industry in which BAT has built a global multi-category portfolio of leading brands, industry-leading digital and AI-powered execution, deep consumer insights, world-class science and stewardship, a connected R&D ecosystem, a front-footed approach to shaping regulation, and unparalleled global distribution and retail reach. Taken together, these create powerful competitive advantages, driving our multi-category portfolio of leading brands. Helping BAT win today. Increasing momentum towards A Better Tomorrow. Combustibles is our powerhouse, delivering value at scale, fueling our transformation. In parallel, our consumer-led new category business is thriving, becoming an increasingly meaningful contributor to our group performance.
BAT is committed to driving quality growth, creating sustainable long-term value, and accelerating our journey toward a predominantly smokeless future. We are building momentum as we transform, and as we transform, so our momentum builds. Today, we invite you to look beyond the horizon to explore what is possible, the capabilities, the people, the belief, and the ambitions that are driving BAT's future.
Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. It is a pleasure to be here in Winston-Salem, home of Reynolds American, at the BAT Capital Markets Day. I will share the exciting opportunity ahead for BAT, the pathway to Horizon 2030. I am joined by our management board and other senior leaders. There will be many opportunities to engage with us all directly. As we continue to transform, so too does BAT leadership. So I am especially pleased to welcome Dragos, who returned to BAT as our new CFO, and Celina, who will lead our APMEA region. So I believe BAT is uniquely positioned to win, not just because our industry is growing in value. Our multi-category portfolio, global footprint, people culture, and hard-to-replicate capabilities, together with our best-in-class regional execution, will drive sustainable value at scale.
Let me open with five key messages that frame the next two days. First, the momentum is real. New category revenue was up 18% in H1, whilst total revenue was up 8.5% in the U.S., the world's largest nicotine value pool. That is delivered, not ambition. Second, my belief is that the industry has a long runway of profitable growth ahead. Third, the new categories, and modern oral in particular, are where the industry is growing. We hold strong positions in each of them, especially as the clear global leader in modern oral. Fourth, we are both performing and transforming at the same time, building capabilities that make us future fit. We are not trading one for the order. Fifth, the pathway to our 2030 algorithm is clear and aligned to investor expectations. We are delivering against the ambitions we have set out.
Today, we will demonstrate how we plan to win over Horizon 2030. At our Capital Markets Day in 2024, I made five commitments, and I would like to review our progress against each of them. First, we said we would become increasingly profitable in new categories. Between 2023 and 2025, we delivered an incremental GBP 450 million in new category contribution, led by modern oral and vapor. In H1 2026, new category revenue was up 18%, with category contribution up 55%. That is profitable growth, not growth at any cost. Second, we said we would turn around the U.S. In H1 2026, U.S. revenue was up over 80%, adjusted profit up 10%, with new category revenue up 60%. The U.S. is back to growth, and it's quality growth with top and bottom-line delivery. The U.S. is the cornerstone of the BAT business, and today, you will experience firsthand the strength of our Reynolds organization.
Third, we said a multi-category strategy would win with consumers. We are growing across new categories with leading positions in modern oral and vapor, and this portfolio gives us optionality as consumer preference shifts, recognizing both markets and consumers differ. Fourth, we lay out how credible science can underpin regulatory direction. Regulators around the world are starting to grasp tobacco harm reduction. That shift is opening up categories and new markets. Fifth, we said we would deliver our financial algorithm. H1 2026 adjusted diluted EPS growth is within our five to eight algorithm, with revenue, profitability, and cash all moving in the right direction. We set out what we would do, and we are doing it. Our recipe for success is simple.
Prioritize what matters, focus on the most attractive value pools, execute with discipline, build great teams, and consistently deliver on our commitments. We are delivering today and investing in a better tomorrow. The nicotine industry is transforming and growing. In our addressable markets, we expect the total legal industry revenue to grow at around a 4% CAGR between 2025 and 2030. This revenue will be driven by double-digit growth in new categories, underpinned by resilient low-single-digit growth in combustibles. Within new categories, modern oral is the fastest-growing category by far, a category in which we are global leaders. We expect the modern oral industry revenue to almost triple by 2030. Smokers are increasingly switching to new categories, and this is offsetting volume decline in combustibles as smokers look for smokeless alternatives.
We are committed to actively encouraging adult smokers who would otherwise choose to continue to smoke, to make a full switch to smokeless alternatives, underpinning our 2035 predominantly smokeless ambition. During that switching process, our insights show consumers using multiple nicotine products or polyusing. We also see a growing preference for no inhalation products. Indeed, modern oral is expected to grow double digits on a compound basis, reaching a number similar to heated product consumers by 2030. For many smokers, polyuse is a transitional period on the way to a complete switch to smokeless. Part of any transformation is also transition. While adult smokers who choose to continue using nicotine should switch completely without delay, polyusage is a reality of the industry's transformation. Over the last five years, total polyuse has doubled, mostly driven by polyuse within new categories, and we expect this trend to continue.
A Better Tomorrow is not new. The fundamental direction of the BAT strategy is not changing. That strategy rests on three core elements of our strategic arrowhead: quality growth, a dynamic business, and a sustainable future. What has evolved is the context, how markets, consumers, and regulation have developed. The strategy is delivering, and the switch to smokeless is accelerating. The question is not whether that direction is right. It's a question of how we build on it and the question of strategic execution. Today is all about BAT's Horizon 2030. Under quality growth, we will explore the U.S. as a cornerstone, as our growth driver, a sharper expression of our inhalation portfolio, and optionality beyond nicotine. Then to tobacco harm reduction and our world-class capabilities. Each of these has a session in the agenda, so I will leave the detail to the team.
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