Gilead Sciences Inc 12th Annual Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference
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Okay, great. Thank you for joining us in day 2 of the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference. My name's Carter Gould. I cover the large cap biopharma names here at Cantor. I'm pleased to welcome Gilead to the stage. Joining us is Andy Dickinson, CFO. Jackie Ross from IR and Treasury is also in the crowd someplace. Andy, before we get started, maybe just any opening comments, then we'll jump into Q&A.
Sure. First of all, thank you for having us. We appreciate it. It's great to be here. Great to kick off the September conference season. It's a really exciting time at Gilead. I think you've seen the incredible progress over the last two or three years with our business overall, including our HIV business. We had an exciting new approval in the HIV business at the end of August that I'm sure we'll talk about. You're seeing very strong growth across the HIV franchise, obviously with the Sunlenca launch in HIV prevention. The growth of the HIV prevention market is an exciting, relatively new chapter for Gilead. Then you're seeing some exciting growth and developments in the oncology and the inflammation business. We have a lot of data coming later this year.
We have a really important approval that we expect later this year of anitocabtagene autoleucel for the cell therapy business. So there's a lot to watch and be excited about, and happy to kind of dig into any of it.
Okay, perfect. Since you teed it up, why don't we start off with Sunlenca, and maybe just give us sort of the state of the state in terms of on-ramping of new patients. Clearly, for those people in the crowd, we put out notes every Friday.
Yes on the script trends.
From your vantage point, how you feel about the new starts cadence of patients.
Sure. Yeah, we feel great about it, I think at a high level. Look, when you kind of step back, this is one of the most exciting launches in healthcare, right? You look at what's happening in the GLP-1 space and the HIV prevention space, I mean, this is a really exciting development for people at risk of getting HIV. At a high level, every single metric of the launch is either tracking to or exceeding our expectations. We've guided to roughly $1 billion of sales that are expected this year. Again, the drug was approved right at the very end of the second quarter of last year, if I remember correctly. So we're kind of at a year into the launch, and all of the metrics look great.
We talked at the end of the second quarter about a 70% persistence rate, which again, for a prevention medicine from our perspective is very, very strong as well. We're off to a great start. The big picture for the HIV prevention business is if you think about it over the next 10 or 15 years, and we expect to have a yearly injectable version of lenacapavir or Sunlenca available in 2028. Over time, we expect the market to consistently, steadily move from the orals, including the oral long-acting, to the injectables. A lot of the growth that you're seeing. The other thing I should mention, Carter, is today, we're on a $4 billion run rate for our HIV prevention business. It's not that long ago that this was a $1.5 billion business for us.
The market's been growing beautifully, mid-teens percentage growth for the overall HIV prevention market. You've seen stronger growth in our business as a result, both of the Sunlenca launch, also some pricing tailwinds and growth for Descovy, which is really exciting. The final piece of the puzzle is, in addition to the long-acting injectables, which we think will be the best option for patients in the long run, and you'll see the market continuously move towards the long-acting injectables. We have a weekly oral version of lenacapavir that we expect will be approved next year in the U.S., and that will allow us to target those patients that, for whatever reason, don't want to use an injectable or want to start with an oral. 50% of the market today is generic daily oral in TRUVADA.
I think the weekly oral opens up that part of the market significantly to move over as a precursor, potentially from a daily oral to a weekly oral before these people maybe consider moving to the long-acting injectable. Every which way we look at it, the launch is going really well. The prevention business overall is doing great, and we think it's just the beginning of a long period of growth for that franchise.
You sort of teed up the next question. As we think about that once-weekly oral, is that more of a way to cannibalize Descovy, or is it to, I guess you kind of alluded to it, opening up new segments that maybe weren't interested in the current offerings?
I think it's both. It's less about cannibalizing Descovy or TRUVADA and more about just offering a better alternative for people that are at risk of getting HIV. The future of HIV prevention, in our view, is clearly in the long-acting, so you see that with the Sunlenca launch. The weekly oral, the monthly orals that will be coming in the future, including our programs, will continue to open up that market. I think you have two dynamics happening at the same time. In the short run, when you have an oral-to-oral conversion, you can see pretty profound movements in the market in a short period of time if you bring an alternative that is better for patients that are at risk of getting HIV.
The best example is when we launched Descovy, whatever it was for prevention now, 5 or 6 years ago, 50% of the market, roughly the daily oral market, moved from TRUVADA to Descovy in 15 months. As we launch the weekly oral, there's a real opportunity to take that 85% of the market that is currently using one of the two daily oral alternatives to move to a weekly oral and ensure greater adherence and compliance. It won't be for everyone.
Right. The second piece of the puzzle that we have talked about, again, is that over time, we expect that 85% of the market on the orals to shrink as more and more of the market moves to the long-acting injectables, including Yeztugo.
Okay. On that long-acting side of the marketplace, how do you think about every 6 months and every 12 months sort of coexisting? Is that something we should expect, or would you expect it longer-term to gravitate to the- We expect that they will coexist.
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