Incyte Genomics Inc 12th Annual Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference
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The Cantor Conference. My name is Eric Schmidt, and it's my pleasure to moderate the next session with my colleague, Imogen Mansfield, and delighted to have with us the Incyte team, fresh off a big year and looking forward to a very eventful fall as well. We've got the company's Chief Executive Officer, Bill Meury, as well as the company's President and Head of R&D, Pablo Cagnoni. Pablo, Bill, thank you for being here.
Great to be here. Bill, it's been just about a year since you took the helm.
Yeah Give us a lay of the land and what's worked well over that intervening period since we last saw you.
Yeah, look, I joined the company just about 14, 15 months ago. One of the things I observed from the outside looking in is that the pipeline when I joined was still really in a proof of concept stage. We did not have significant phase I data on INCA033989, KRAS G12D, TGFβR2xPD-1. Obviously, we didn't have our protein S modulator for von Willebrand disease. Here we are about 18 months into the phase, and we're in phase III on all those assets. I think the pipeline has advanced in a way that is very reassuring, number one. Number two, I think it gives us much greater visibility into the recovery phase, the growth rate of Incyte post 2029 after we lose Jakafi.
I think we as a management team should be judged on two things right now, and we laid this plan out at the beginning of 2026. The first one is getting the core business to $3 billion-$4 billion. That is essentially the floor for Incyte. That is supported by multiple product launches over the next 12 to 18 months. Two of them are already on the market, Jakafi XR, and we launched Opzelura in Germany, actually a couple of weeks ago, and then we're waiting for povorcitinib and potentially frontline DLBCL for MONJUVI. That's the core business, and we have to keep that product line moving, and you'll get reports every quarter as we report on the performance of those launches. Then part two is the pipeline. There are five assets in the company right now that will represent roughly 80% of our recovery.
That is INCA033989, our CALR antibody for MF and ET, our KRAS G12D inhibitor for pancreatic cancer, our TGFβR2xPD-1 bispecific for colorectal cancer, the protein S modulator for von Willebrand disease, and then povorcitinib, which will be part of the core business as soon as it gets approved. We expect at the beginning of 2027. That is an execution test, and I think a lot of the biology risk has been removed. The phase I programs that supported our decisions to go into phase III were sizable phase I programs. Now it's about making sure that we maintain study timelines, secure regulatory approvals, and then convert those approvals ultimately to revenue, earnings and cash flow. The last point I would make is business development, like at any company, is going to be used to supplement what we have internally.
We're not going to buy our way through 2029, and we look primarily for opportunities that can be highly accretive to the growth rate of the company when we get past the transition.
Very helpful. So as you execute on part one, the execution on the core business, then part two, the de-risking and maturation of the pipeline, when is the right time to provide us with some guidance on that trough earnings and the growth coming out of the trough?
Yeah, it is a really good question. I think sometime next year, as we get more clarity on the recovery. While it is de-risked, in my opinion, there will be proof points between now and as we get closer and closer to the transition, and we will start to provide a framework for how to think about the company in terms of revenue, earnings, and cash flow during that period of time. I think we are set up very well right now, but there is one thing you can never underestimate in biopharma, and that is attrition, whether it is a delay or an underperforming launch or I do not believe in our case it is zero. As we get more information, I think it is important we give visibility into how we will manage the P&L of the company and what we think the long-term growth rate of Incyte can be.
What we are targeting is top quartile growth, and if we can get this business to grow at a 15%-20% CAGR from 2023 to 2035, for example, just to pick a period in time, that will be really successful. Certainly, the assets that we have, and if you look at the potential without using heroic assumptions, have the potential to 2X the business. But we do not expect people to take our word for it. We have to execute these programs, and we have all the pieces in place right now.
Throughout this period of transition, if you want to call it, you have a lot of cash on the balance sheet. You are generating a lot of cash each year. You referenced business development. Is that the right use of that cash, the reallocation of the cash, and what else are you looking for there?
Yeah, I think the first call on capital is making sure that this R&D program that we have in place, which is heavily phase III weighted, is maximized. Pablo will talk a little bit about what we are going to do with INCA033989 and KRAS G12D, because those are single assets. Our job is to systematically expand INCA033989 into an MPN portfolio of multiple targeted therapies, and then to do the same with KRAS G12D in terms of tumor types, lines of therapy, and combinations. Second call on capital will be business development. When we think about business development, I think the Star Therapeutics transaction was a textbook example of the type of deal that makes sense for Incyte strategically and financially.
It was a late-stage or a phase III asset in an area where we have differentiated knowledge and capabilities. We believe it has plus $1 billion potential, a relatively de-risked asset, and it was a staged deal in terms of how we deployed capital, and very accretive if we are successful to the post 2029 picture. Then there are, of course, things you can do that are more near-term, and that could be supportive of the company over the next several years. Those use larger, more upfront capital. We will be very selective if we do that.
Okay. Speaking of the nearer term, as you advance toward the Jakafi patent expiration, we are about to talk, I am sure, about this top five or so pipeline candidates where you are going to spend considerably and really expand the franchises and create some hopeful long-term shareholder value. How much do you care about your P&L in 2027 and 2028?
Yeah. Listen, we have to manage it. We are not pursuing a growth at all cost strategy. I do not think anyone has the luxury of doing that. To be clear, what we are solving for is not margin right now, we are solving for a growth rate. If we can invest now and take care of the next decade, we are going to do it. We want R&D over the long term as a percentage of sales to come down, and that happens one of two ways. You grow your sales, that is the best way, and the other way is you moderate your spending. What I will say about R&D investment right now is that over 80% of our investment is focused, Eric, on the assets that we are talking about.
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