Onto Innovation Inc. Citi Global TMT Conference
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Welcome to day 2 of Citi Global TMT Conference. My name is Elizabeth Sun. I am here in Citi's research covering in the Semi and Semicaps team. It is my pleasure to welcome the Onto team here. We have the CEO, Michael Plisinski, and then we have the CFO, Brian Roberts. Welcome both. Thank you. Let us start with market overview.
Mike, when we were here last year this time, the WFE outlook was more, say, uncertain, maybe a slight growth, and there were some, or a lot investor concerns about some share dynamics at that time. Today, the WFE cycle looks considerably stronger, and Onto, I think, is growing faster than the market. If we start at a high level, what has changed over the past year, both in the breadth and durability of the WFE cycle and also some of the share dynamics for Onto?
I think a few things. First, the markets for sure have been strong. Customers are confident. They are spending money. They are giving us better visibility. They are sharing multi-year expansion plans with us. That is good. Then behind that, we had several new products. The Dragonfly G5 came out and really did an outstanding job in the beginning of the year, gave customers confidence in the ongoing technology portfolio that we have for inspection, which helped them drive or basically give us more share. In addition, we had the Atlas G6 come out also around the same time, and the adoption for new Atlas products typically is relatively long, as customers take a lot of time to make sure that the matching is there between the Atlas V and the process control is in line.
The adoption was very fast with the Atlas G6, and in some cases, we saw customers just go straight to purchase orders and ramp right on the Atlas G6. That tells me that there was some compelling value from the Atlas G6 that our competitors couldn't deliver, and I think that also helped.
Yep. Just to double-click on that piece, I hate to ask this, but I'm curious, have you gained all of the share back?
What share? I don't know what you're talking about.
There's more to go on the share gains part.
It's hard to say, because the particular customer you might be talking about, which I don't recall, didn't spend a ton. They've been factory constrained. They're trying to leverage OSATs to sort of free up some capacity, and we got huge OSAT orders, so that should tell you one thing. But back in, what was it, March or whatever it was, we did say that we were qualified for all. So we'll see where the actual allocations end up when they start spending more aggressively in 2027. But the initial feedback has been super positive. Already the competitor is reacting and trying to fight back. We already have our solution. So I think it's the normal dynamics. We're back to the normal games we play.
That's good. But I would say as far as did we gain it all back, for sure.
We're capable for everything that happened. How much the customer wants to allocate back and forth, we'll see. Generally, that customer cares more about total spend with a particular supplier versus second source on a per-layer basis. So we're optimistic that we should see essentially things coming back.
Sounds good. You talk about backlog more than $1.1 billion, and 60%-70% is scheduled for 2026. Your Q3 guide implies maintaining sequential growth, and Q4, I think, assumes kind of mid-single-digit growth. So does this strong backlog create any upside to either Q3 or Q4? Or is it conversion pace constraint more like supply facility readiness or installation timing?
Yeah. I think our focus is more on driving the additional backlog for 2027. I think the growth we've implied is around 40%, significantly above our peer, nearly double our peers, frankly. And of course, that kind of growth can stress supply chains, so we're more focused on, all right, let's maintain that growth. Let's make sure that our supply chains ramp effectively, quality is maintained or improved, et cetera, and that we're preparing ourselves for an even better 2027. Our focus is a little bit less on trying to drive a lot more upside there versus manage through and prepare for even better 2027.
And what kind of growth are you preparing for 2027? Are you expecting a kind of acceleration or, if we compare to the market, growth better than the continue this kind of outperformance?
Though we're not correlated to WFE. We think the drivers we have in place, for instance, the Dragonfly G5 opening up potentially front-end markets, the Atlas G6, which is in the early stages of adoption and bigger expansions expected next year in logic. The silicon photonics opportunity, which if you add all those up, we would expect we would be able to outperform the market, but again, we're not correlated, and it depends on where the market is.
No, that makes sense. And for that backlog- Maybe share more at the Analyst Day.
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