Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc.CCOI
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Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. TD Cowen 12th Annual Communications Infrastructure Summit

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Transcript

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Sam MayerEquity Research Associate

Ready to get started? Great. Awesome. Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Sam Mayer. I am an associate on the telecom research group here at TD Cowen. I am very pleased to be here today with Dave Schaeffer, Founder and CEO of Cogent Communications. Dave, thanks so much for joining us today.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

Hey, Sam. Thanks for hosting me. As always, I want to thank TD Cowen for a great venue. It gives me an excuse to get to Boulder, and I would like to thank the investors who hung around late in the day to hear what we have to say.

Sam MayerEquity Research Associate

Yeah, for sure. On the 2Q print, had an EBITDA miss, but partly on one-time severance cost. Wave of softness, but was largely baked into estimates. Noted constructive commentary on potential data center sales, a pending refinancing, CapEx coming down, yet the stock still sold off again. We are curious to get color from you on what you think the main factors driving the stock sell-off are.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

Yeah, I think there is significant investor concern around the fact that our $750 million of unsecured debt went current in the second quarter, and we are taking steps to refinance that debt as secured debt. We will most likely shrink the amount that we are looking to raise.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

Yeah. Probably doing a shorter tenure to give us a little bit more call flexibility.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

I think the number one concern was around that debt maturity. Secondly, our top line continued to decline. For 18 consecutive years, when Cogent was organically growing as a standalone company, it had average annual growth rate of 10.2% per year. We acquired Sprint, which three years prior to our acquisition, had a revenue decline rate of 10.9% a year. Sprint represented 42% of the combined company's revenue, Cogent 58%. With that large of a revenue base declining, our revenue growth for the past 12 quarters has been negative. A lot of that negative growth is by design because the Sprint revenues were generating negative EBITDA margins of approximately 60%, $300 million of negative EBITDA on a $485 million run rate. We worked diligently on purging unprofitable products.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

That meant killing non-core services, moving customers where possible on net, and migrating access services to fiber rather than fixed wireless or coax or twisted pair. Finally, we purged services outside of the 58 countries in which we are licensed. As a result, the revenue base of Sprint accelerated its rate of decline. Today, that revenue base represents only 15% of the combined company's revenue, and that drag on top line has, I think, discouraged growth investors. During that same period, our EBITDA grew sequentially and year-over-year 11 of the 12 quarters, and our EBITDA margins expanded by over 2,000 basis points on a combined basis. Most of that improvement came through cost cutting. A small amount of that improvement came through the growth in on net versus off net.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

We report a higher number of EBITDA because we include the subsidy payments that we receive from T-Mobile. Last year, the underlying EBITDA was $192 million, the reported number, $292 million. Investors are concerned because those payments end in February of 2028, so a little less than two years from now. We probably have about another $50 million of run rate of cost savings to take out. That is about $8 million in the underlying cost basis, $7 million of cost reduction due to the sale of our data center footprint to I Squared, or at least a portion of it, 10 data centers and 54 megawatts, and then finally, from our reduction in headcount related to integration expenses. Just to remind investors, when we announced the Sprint transaction, we outlined that we were going to be spending about $60 million a year on integration efforts.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

Almost all of that spending were internal resources, and that spending would be complete by the end of 2026. We had reduced that number down to a $36 million run rate going into the second quarter. We ended up reducing headcount by 6%, and that additional headcount reduction had us exiting the quarter at about a million dollar a month run rate. That number will go to zero by year-end. We go into next year with nearly $50 million of EBITDA tailwind.

Sam MayerEquity Research Associate

Great. Awesome. I want to touch on CapEx. CapEx came in at $38.5 million in 2Q, coming down sequentially, and you've guided to further expectations for declines in 3Q and 4Q. With the expectation for CapEx to moderate going into 3Q, why is this happening? Have your vendors taken down price? Are you simply ordering fewer routers? Do you think we could think about $30 million-$35 million as the quarterly range to look at CapEx going forward?

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

We actually hope our long-term CapEx is below that number. Prior to acquiring Sprint, our CapEx was running at around $100 million a year. Sprint's was about $30 million. With the synergies that we achieved, the network consolidation, we thought we would get down to a run rate of about $100 million a year, and we would also be spending about $40 million a year on principal payments on capital leases. The Cogent IP network, which spans 94,000 route miles of inner-city fiber, 33,000 route miles of metro fiber in 308 markets, 58 countries, is the largest IP network in the world, built entirely on IRUs. We expect that principal payment number to remain constant. On the CapEx side, our CapEx did come down sequentially by $18 million. We had a surge in capital spending for three reasons. One, we ended up converting 125 telephone locations into data centers.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

That ended up being a wise investment because we sold 10 of those facilities for $225 million in cash. We had a GAAP gain of $130.4 million. We actually had a tax gain of $224.1 million, and we're fortunate that we had sufficient NOLs to shelter that gain. We still operate over 170 data centers, and we have 24 of those remaining data centers, or excuse me, 14 remaining of the 24 that we had earmarked for sale. The second reason CapEx surged is we had to reconfigure the Sprint network. The Sprint network was a TDM voice network. We repurposed that asset into a wavelength network. We extended that network into 1,137 carrier-neutral data centers. This required a significant capital investment. Then third, we have been hit actually by equipment price increases, which is truly unprecedented in technology.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

Whether it be in routing or transport or servers, customers expect prices to decline following Moore's Law, which represents about a 55%-per-year price performance improvement. What we have seen in the past 18 months is an unprecedented spade of price increases. We buy equipment from three vendors. Cisco is our largest, Ciena our second largest, and Arista our third. We have had six price increases in calendar year 2026 from Cisco. We've had three from Ciena and two from Arista. This is unusual. We've also seen equipment availability stretch. Normally, equipment would be ordered and shipped within 90 days. Now we're being quoted delivery times for much of this gear being 18 to 24 months. This has resulted in an uplift in our capital spending. We did experience $18 million of savings on a sequential basis.

Dave SchaefferFounder and CEO

We expect that number to come down, but I think the $25 million a quarter, which we still think is a long-term rate, probably needs to wait until some of these supply chain issues get resolved.

Sam MayerEquity Research Associate

Do you anticipate any more price raises coming from equipment vendors, or where it sits now, do you think it might have plateaued?

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