Incyte Genomics Inc Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
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Have Incyte for this session represented by Bill and Pablo. Maybe just a quick disclosure before we get into it. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. With any questions, contact your Morgan Stanley sales representative. All right. With that, welcome back. Bill, you joined the company a couple months before the conference last year.
Right. Maybe you could provide a brief overview of how the company has evolved, both strategically and in the clinic over the last 12 months or so.
Thanks for having us. I think the most significant change over the past 12 months since I've joined, and to be fair, I inherited a lot of substrate, is that the pipeline today looks fundamentally different than it did 12 months ago. To put a fine point on that, when I joined, we had no proof of concept data on 989, our CALR antibody for MF and ET. We had no proof of concept data on our KRAS G12D inhibitor for pancreatic cancer, or TGFβR2xPD-1 for colorectal cancer. We didn't even have phase III data for povorcitinib, which is now under review at the FDA.
Through the acquisition of Vega, we didn't have latarcibart for von Willebrand disease. Today we have all of that.
I think the point here is that we have much greater visibility into the recovery phase or the growth phase of the company post 2029, after we lose JAKAFI.
Now it's our job to convert phase III trials into FDA approvals and ultimately revenue earnings and cash flow.
We think about this company right now in two simple pieces. This, I think, is how we should be judged. The first is our core business ex-JAKAFI, which is annualizing at roughly $2 billion in sales. Our job is to get it to $3 billion to $4 billion by 2030, which sets the floor for Incyte.
The second job is to continue to advance the pipeline, which is more de-risked now than it was a year ago, as I said, and launch these products. If we do this right, and it's got to work, we don't expect people to take our word for it, the company has the potential to grow at a 15%-20% CAGR from 2030 to 2035. That would increase the value of the company. It'll give us a great deal of sort of breadth and depth in terms of our product line. We'll have dramatically reduced the LOE exposure of the company. That's the basic framework for recovery.
Okay, great. That's a good way to set the stage. We're going to jump around a bit, but figure we'll start with MPN. For the JAKAFI franchise and XR specifically, what will determine whether conversion reaches the low or high end of the 10%-30% pre-LOE target you put out?
Yeah, it's a good question. We have this range of 10%-30%, take the midpoint of 20%. If we're successful there, we preserve almost $750 million in sales as we go through the transition. I think there's two steps.
The first is to get formulary coverage.
We'll provide an update on the third quarter call where we are.
We are ahead of schedule.
Okay. Formulary coverage for XR by the end of the year is going to approach 70%-80%.
We have all the major PBMs and health plans with JAKAFI XR on formulary at parity with IR and at a price that is acceptable to us and acceptable to them, which is parity to JAKAFI.
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