TXO Partners, L.P. EnerCom Denver – The Energy Investment Conference
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
- The company leads the industry in delivered floating LNG vessels over the last ten years, trailing only Petrobras in FPSO delivery during the same period.
- Plenitude, the renewable retail and e-mobility business, is expected to generate €1.3 billion EBITDA in 2026 and aims to double EBITDA to about €2.6 billion by 2030, with installed renewable capacity growing from roughly 6 GW to 15 GW by decade-end.
- An additional 5% stake in Plenitude is being sold to Ares Management, implying a current enterprise value of approximately €13.1 billion net of debt.
- Any Life, the renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel business, expects to generate €1.3 billion EBITDA in 2026 and aims to reach €3 billion EBITDA by 2030, tripling bio refining capacity from 1.65 million tons to 5 million tons annually and growing Agra feedstock integration to 1 million tons per year.
- Any Next, a private equity arm created in 2018, has deployed roughly $650 million into 23 startups with a current market value about three times invested capital, including a major investment in Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS).
- CFS has raised approximately $4 billion to date, with a 100 MW pilot facility 'Spark' over 75% complete and a 400 MW commercial plant 'Arc' under development in Virginia, expected to dispatch fusion-generated power early next decade with PPAs signed by Any and Google.
- Consolidated CapEx for 2026-2030 is decreasing due to perimeter effects and efficiencies.
- The company plans to return 35-45% of CFO to shareholders, confirmed a 2026 base dividend of €1.1 per share with expected low single-digit annual growth, and has doubled its annual share buyback commitment to €3.4 billion.
- Management states the company has the best global upstream business model, is growing energy transition businesses, maintains a strong balance sheet, and is the largest investor in the first commercial nuclear fusion power project.
- TXO, led by co-CEOs Brent Clum and Gary Simpson, has a portfolio of assets in the Permian, San Juan, and Williston basins, with 520,000 net acres and about $1 billion in PDP, focusing on building a sustainable, valuable production and distribution company.
- TXO started with a joint venture with Exxon, repositioned in 2020 anticipating a favorable commodity environment, and has made acquisitions in San Juan and Permian basins, going public in 2023 to build value rather than size.
- TXO aims to grow distributions annually, managing capital prudently with a target decline rate below 15%, and expects to generate several hundred million to $700 million of cash flow over time.
- In the Williston Basin, TXO is redeveloping fields with advanced technology, increasing lateral lengths from 10,000 to 15,000 feet, drilling seven wells in 2026 with plans for multi-well pads and over 100 additional locations.
- San Juan Basin assets include 60,000 acres in New Mexico with plans for a 2-4 well Mancos program when commodity prices improve, supported by infrastructure investments in 2026.
- The Permian Basin position includes the Vacuum field with a 6% decline rate and CO2 flood, providing flat production and mitigating decline rates.
- TXO plans to spend about $80-90 million on refracturing and well cleanouts in 2026, balancing capital investment with distribution growth and maintaining a strong balance sheet with 1-2 times debt leverage.
- TXO is approximately 50% hedged for 2026 production, aiming to protect distributions amid commodity price volatility, with a goal to increase distributions to $1.60 over the next 12 months.
- Parex, a Colombian oil and gas producer listed on the TSX with a $1.8 billion market cap and $900 million debt, has doubled production to over 90,000 barrels per day through acquisition of Frontera and benefits from a new pro oil and gas government.
- Parex holds over 7-8 million acres with access to more than 10 billion barrels of original oil in place, focusing on conventional oil and gas with transformational exploration potential in the foothills of Colombia starting Q4 2026.
- Parex has returned $2 billion to shareholders this year via dividends and debt reduction, operates primarily in the Animas basin with seasonal drilling constraints, and emphasizes shareholder returns and portfolio sustainability.
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Transcript
Preview the first fifteen paragraphs, organized by speaker.
Hello, everyone. My name is Kevin Andrus with EnerCom. It's my pleasure to introduce Brent Clum, Co-CEO and CFO of TXO.
Thank you. Thanks, Kevin. It's nice to be back at EnerCom. I don't think we've been back for a considerable period of time. I got my Co-CEO, Gary Simpson, with me as well down front. Tell you a little bit about TXO. We've not been big on the conference circuit. Just to give you a little bit of a refresh about the story, the headline things I'd point out to begin with is we have a nice portfolio of assets, and I'll give you a little history lesson. I know the last thing you want is an old guy up here telling you history, but I'm going to give you a little history, and I think it sets the stage about how we think about the business and how we manage the business, which I think is really helpful.
We do think like long-term owners because we own a lot of the stock. Our board and our insiders own about a third of the company. We try to make decisions with the owner view in mind, and we think that's very, very helpful. Again, building value with the right assets over time. This is what I call the placemat. It tells you a lot about what we've been able to distribute. We are a unique company in that we're a production and a distribution company. I think I'll start here at the bottom, really, with the timeline, because I think how we got here is relatively important. For those of you who don't know us, we started this company shortly after we sold our old business, XTO, to Exxon.
For perspective, that was a business that started essentially from zero, much like this business. We sold to Exxon for $41 billion in 2010. At the time we sold, we were the largest producer of natural gas in the U.S. We did that primarily through an acquire and exploit strategy. I'll talk a little bit more about the strategy we used to build XTO and the things we did at XTO were really the same strategies we deploy today. If you go back legacy wise, Bob Simpson and Keith Hutton were two of the most important drivers to what we built at XTO, and their DNA and their training really flows through to what we're doing today. Most of the important people making the decisions in the business today all have that legacy and all came up the same way.
That history is very relevant to what we do today. As I said, we started this business in 2011, 2012. You can see it down in the bottom, really in the Permian. We started it with assets we got in a joint venture with Exxon. I will talk later about the unwinding of that joint venture. Really, that was the foundational asset of the company. It really relied on the expertise we had at the time. We really recentered the business in 2020. We had the conviction that the commodity environment was going to be different, that the industry discipline was finally more foundational and was likely to be sustainable.
We had a view on commodities that while AI and data centers were not necessarily a big thing then, we did think that the supply and demand equation and the regulatory environment that had been present over the previous period of time was likely to be more favorable to what we did. I would say we repositioned the company, and it was critical to where we went today. We built it foundationally. In 2020, we did an acquisition in the San Juan Basin. It was a basin that we had been in at XTO for a very long period of time. We followed that in 2021 with two assets in the Permian, both from Chevron.
In 2024, we went public in 2023, and really, that was a foundational event for us, and we thought that was the ability for us to build a more valuable company, not necessarily a bigger company. As I relayed earlier, at XTO, we were the largest producer of natural gas at the time we sold. We were not interested in being bigger. We were interested in making a more valuable company. What does that mean? Assets that are not as operational intensive as some of the legacy assets we had in our portfolio. High margin assets. If you look at what we have done to the cost per barrel over the last three or four years and where that has gone, we brought that down a lot.
While we had a view that commodity prices were likely going to be sustainably higher for longer, we wanted to build our cost structure for if that was not the case, we would have a nice sustainable business. Again, as I said earlier, we are big owners of the company. We are interested in building a sustainable, durable business that is much more valuable, and I think we have done that. If you look at what we have created, we did two acquisitions, one in 2024. It marked our, I call it our re-entry, but for TXO, it was our entry into the Williston Basin. When we talk about the Williston Basin, what we are really talking about is the Montana side. That is the Elm Coulee Basin. It is a basin that for us, we had been in at XTO. We bought the assets in 2008 from Headington Oil Company.
Interestingly, in 2025, when we did our White Rock acquisition, we rebought those assets. We viewed that as an asset that was going to be very high margin for us, and we viewed that as an asset that really had been underexploited. When I talk more specifically about the Williston, I will tell you why that was underexploited. Really, it has given us a nice foundation. So between the asset we have in Montana, the foundational assets we have in the Permian, and our assets in San Juan, we have a business where we can toggle between gas and we can toggle between oil. As the world sits today, oil is where we are spending most of our capital. I will talk a little bit more about that. We have built a business that we have 520,000 net acres across these three high impact basins.
We have about $1 billion in PDP. We think we have a very valuable business. Because all this is HBP, we view it as having a tremendous amount of optionality. Bob likes to say you always find oil or find natural resources where they are, and by all means, that is what we have done. It is kind of the gift that keeps on giving. We have been talking about the Mancos for a very long period of time, and I will show you a slide. When time is right, we will be in a position to really exploit that asset, and I think we have one of the most valuable assets in the Mancos that anybody has.
As you may or may not be aware, LOGOS, who presented yesterday, just sold their business for north of $1 billion here recently, and we think we have a really compelling position as well. Very low decline rate. Again, when you go back to what built XTO, it was the low decline rate of the assets. We think the decline rate of the assets are about 12% over time. We have taken it probably from about 9.5% when we went public in 2023 to 12%. We want to keep it less than 15%. I think when we exited at XTO, we had a 14% decline rate. We do think we have some great targets and some great ability to move the needle, but we want to be very, very sensitive.
When we went public, as I said, we did things to make a more valuable company. We branded as a production and distribution company. Our goal, we wake up every year saying we want to raise our distribution every single year. This is a commodity business. The commodity curve is typically backwardated. It is not easy to do, but that is what we strive to do every year. Our goal is to maximize, is a strong word, but I will use it, maximize our distribution in the short and intermediate term while building long-term value, right? We do not want to go in blow-down mode. We think we have the assets to make a more valuable company. That is what we set out to do every year. We think we have done a pretty good job about it, but we call ourselves a production and distribution company.
If commodity prices are such that it's a favorable environment, then we will seek to grow, but we're not going to be growing organically 10% every year or 5% a year, maybe a couple percent a year. If commodity prices look like they did back in January, there may be a period of time we say, "Hey, look, we're okay with the business declining a couple of percent because keeping our distribution and managing our business for the long term is what makes sense to us." That's the way we think about the business. One of the things we did is kind of looked at the portfolio. We've got a nice portfolio of conventional assets that help our decline rate. We've got a nice portfolio of unconventional assets. Then we've got some sensitivity.
We did the White Rock acquisition about a month after Liberation Day last year, right? The right assets come to market when the right assets come to market. For us, it was very critical for us to do that transaction. We issued equity against it as an MLP and distributing cash flow. We are dependent on using the public markets as a means of financing our transactions on a go-forward basis. We'd like to think we've earned the ability to do that, and we'd like to think the results would suggest we've done that. What we did here is just gave a little bit of sensitivity. Commodity environments have been a little bit volatile. We want to give you a sense of what we think the business can earn over time.
I think as we take the cost structure of the business down, as we take the resource and convert the resource over time, you have the ability really to scale this business up into $700 million of cash flow. One of the questions we get asked a lot in our breakouts is: What does this business take for a maintenance cash flow? We don't necessarily think about maintenance cash flow in that regard, but we think we'll spend about 40% of our capital to grow the business at the margin, a percent or two every year. That's how we think about running the business. Obviously, you have to think about that through cycles, but that's how we think about the business. This gives you a sense of, depending where you are on your optimism or on non-optimism, just how sensitive this is.
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