【市場分析】米中間選挙後の欧州セクター／銘柄への影響

Tech: The Democratic sweep hit the US big-tech and AI names on the prospect of tighter AI regulation, with NVIDIA (NVDA) -1.1%, Microsoft (MSFT) -1.4% and Alphabet (GOOG) -1.5% at worst overnight, while in Asia the Nikkei 225 fell over 3% at worst on the same narrative. Some of the pressure eased after Republicans won Louisiana PSC Districts 1 & 5, with Amazon (AMZN) paring to -0.7% from -1.5%, although the Democratic flip in the Texas Governor race threatens ERCOT power and AI data centre deregulation. European semis and AI-linked names are in focus at the open, including chip equipment names ASML (ASML NA), ASM International (ASM NA) and BE Semiconductor (BESI NA), chipmakers Infineon (IFX GY) and STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP), and data-centre power and cabling names Schneider Electric (SU FP), Siemens Energy (ENR GY) and Prysmian (PRY IM). Banks: US financials were hit by the lower-yield environment and the potential for further regulation, with JPMorgan (JPM) -0.8% and Goldman Sachs (GS) -1.3% overnight, as a Democratic sweep removes the deregulation upside. This is a potential negative read-across for European banks with large US investment banking operations, such as Barclays (BARC LN), Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) and UBS (UBSG SW). Health Care: The Democratic trade favours Health Care on the Medicaid narrative, with UnitedHealth (UNH) +1.7%, Centene (CNC) +2.5% and HCA Healthcare (HCA) +1.3% overnight, amid expectations of softer Medicaid cuts and a possible restoration of ACA subsidies under a sweep. European names with US healthcare exposure could see support, notably Fresenius Medical Care (FME GY), which generates a large share of its revenue from US dialysis services, alongside Fresenius (FRE GY), which retains a stake in FME. Medtech and hospital suppliers with significant US sales could also be on watch: Smith & Nephew (SN/ LN), Siemens Healthineers (SHL GY), Philips (PHIA NA) and Convatec (CTEC LN). Utilities: Renewables are seen as a beneficiary of a Democratic sweep in the US, with First Solar (FSLR) and NextEra (NEE) in focus, while the Texas result puts ERCOT power deregulation at risk. This could impact European renewables names with US exposure, such as Orsted (ORSTED DC), Vestas (VWS DC), RWE (RWE GY), Iberdrola (IBE SM) and EDP Renovaveis (EDPR PL). Aerospace & Defence: A Democratic sweep is seen as a headwind for US defence names (LMT, NOC, GD, RTX), as it removes the prospect of further defence funding via party-line reconciliation and raises the risk of budget gridlock. Potential read-across for European names with large US defence businesses, such as BAE Systems (BA/ LN) and Leonardo (LDO IM). However, focus has turned back to the Middle East and potential US strikes against Iran in the coming sessions, which could keep the sector underpinned. Retail: Staples and discount retail are expected to benefit from the support measures for lower-income households that a Democratic wave makes more likely, with Walmart (WMT) +0.4% overnight. In Europe, Ahold Delhaize (AD NA) could be of note, which generates the majority of its sales from its US supermarket chains. Energy: WTI and Brent are back in the green, after early pressure on the risk-off move and Trump saying the US has no immediate plan to strike Iran, as focus turns more to the Middle East and the potential for US strikes. This offers potential support for the oil majors, including Shell (SHEL LN), BP (BP/ LN), TotalEnergies (TTE FP), Eni (ENI IM) and Equinor (EQNR NO). On the policy side, a Democratic Congress removes the legislative backing for the administration's "drill, baby, drill" agenda, although much of it, including lease sales, LNG export approvals and permitting, is driven by executive action that Trump can protect with his veto. Majors with significant US upstream and LNG exposure, such as BP (BP/ LN), Shell (SHEL LN) and TotalEnergies (TTE FP), are the most exposed.