Newsquawk デイリー欧州オープニングニュース - 2026年11月4日

Democrats are seeing a very strong midterm result, flipping key Senate races in Ohio, Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, with DDHQ giving them a 99% chance of winning the House and a 100% chance of winning the Senate. US President Trump said he will accept the election result and is prepared to work with Democrats, while stating that veto power is one of the strongest powers he has. US equity futures were sold on prospects of a blue wave; APAC stocks were mixed, and European equity futures indicate a lower open. DXY was pressured and 10yr UST futures were underpinned early before paring much of the move, while spot gold saw a haven bid. Trump said the US has no immediate plan to strike Iran, although CENTCOM reportedly has a plan to strike as early as Wednesday. Looking ahead, highlights include Global Services/Composite PMI Final (Oct), EU HICP (Oct), US ADP Employment Change (Oct), Trade Balance (Sep), ISM Services PMI (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q4), Riksbank Policy Announcement, US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement, NBP Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, BoJ Minutes, South African Municipal Elections. Speakers include Riksbank's Thedeen & ECB's Lane. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Qualcomm & Novo Nordisk. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 -1.7% ASX 200 -0.6% Hang Seng +1.1% Shanghai Comp +2.0% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 -0.4% DAX Dec'26 -0.5% ES Dec'26 -0.3% NQ Dec'26 -0.4% FX DXY -0.4% (101.46) EUR/USD +0.4% (1.1236) USD/JPY -0.4% (157.98) GBP/USD +0.4% (1.3462) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +3.5 ticks Bund Dec'26 -3 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.94% German 10yr Yield 3.33% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +0.2% Brent Jan'27 +0.2% Spot Gold +2.0% LME Copper -0.1% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.5% Ethereum +0.8% As of 06:10GMT/01:10EST Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. US MIDTERM ELECTIONS SUMMARY/PRICE ACTION In short, Democrats are projected to have flipped both the House and Senate from the Republicans. The trade has been as expected, with the USD softer (DXY -0.5%, G10s firmer across the board, CHF and JPY lead) and USTs bid throughout this, weighing on the US 10yr yield by c. 5bps. Tech weighing on equity performance with the NQ -2.0% and ES -1.0% at most (now off worst, see below). Big tech/AI names all hit on this, with those supporting the trade (e.g. energy, components, etc) also suffering; NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOG, etc. Banks (JPM, GS) dented by the regulation narrative, which is weighing on crypto-sensitive stocks too, COIN. On the flip side, the Dem. trade is supporting healthcare names (UNH, CNC, HCA) and some retail stocks (WMT, DG). However, some of the local (PUC/PSC) results have been called Republican in key areas; the most pertinent thus far being Louisiana District 5, which has three Amazon facilities planned, and potentially helped spur the easing of pressure seen in such names in the early hours. Though, the PSC results for Georgia potentially offset this given the data centre exposure in the region. On that, an unwind/fade of the Dem. trade is also evident on a macro level. Potentially taking some influence from the upside seen in the energy space (likely as attention turns back to Iran), or as Trump expressed an openness to working with the Dems.. This has seen the initial upside in fixed income unwind, with USTs higher by just 3+ ticks currently vs earlier gains of c. 11+ ticks, and Bunds now in the red. FX peers are no longer uniformly bid vs the USD, with the risk-sensitive AUD and NZD slipping into the red over the last hour or so. Currently, ES -0.4% and NQ -0.7%, vs the aforementioned lows. MAIN POLITICAL UPDATES Democrats flipped key Senate races (Ohio, Texas, South Carolina, Kansas) and are eyeing a potential 54-seat plus Senate majority, meeting the high end of Democratic projections going into the elections. The Kansas and Texas wins are the most historic, with Democrats last winning a Senate race in Kansas in 1932 and in Texas in 1988, while an RCP analyst wrote regarding the Republicans' performance that it was "Easily the worst election for a party since 1974." For the overnight timeline, just over five hours after the first polls closed, DDHQ gave Democrats a 99% chance of winning the House and a 100% chance of winning the Senate, while the latest DDHQ live seat count showed Democrats at 207 vs Republicans at 112 in the House, while Democrats were at 51 vs Republicans at 40 in the Senate. Democrats also performed well in the gubernatorial races, winning Texas, Ohio and Georgia, all flips. US President Trump said he is prepared to work with Democrats and will accept the election result, according to the NYT. In a Truth Social post, he stated that he would have won in a landslide if he were on the ballot, while he thought some candidates would have done better. On Fox, he outlined that veto power is one of the strongest powers he has and that part of the result was Iran, adding that the US was probably not ready for the short-term gasoline consequences of the Iran conflict. Furthermore, he said he could work with the Democrats on many things, such as immigration and will not make cabinet changes. Regarding Iran, the President said if they behave then the US can sign something up, and can finish the job very easily. Oracle (ORCL) cancels USD 7bln Tencent (700 HK) AI deal under Trump pressure, according to FT. NEXT FOCUS POINTS Iran is, of course, the main risk in the near term, with the focus points around that familiar and centred on the upcoming weekend. Then, any further ORCL-type developments from a sector/stock-specific level. For the results, the next major ones are Alaska and Michigan on the Senate. Mississippi is also yet to be called. And then at a local level, the governors for Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska and Nevada. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said the US has no immediate plan to strike Iran and suggested he was content with the state of the stand-off with Iran, even as he signalled he was prepared for more war if necessary, while he stated that they seem to be getting everything we want. Furthermore, Trump responded, "We’re locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it”, when asked about strong hints by Israeli PM Netanyahu that there would be an attack later this week, according to FT. Israel shared intelligence with the US suggesting Iran is considering using chemical weapons against its adversaries, prompting alarm among some American officials and deep scepticism among others, according to the New York Times citing sources. Some US officials reportedly view the intelligence as part of a pressure campaign by Israeli PM Netanyahu to persuade the Trump administration to resume major combat operations, while others believe the threats should be taken seriously amid wider warnings of Iranian preparations to target US interests. US Central Command reportedly has a plan to strike Iran as early as Wednesday, following the midterm elections, with three aircraft carriers in the region, according to US officials. Iran's President Pezeshkian said Iran won't bow to coercion or imposed demands. Iranian political source said US military threats were hindering progress towards resolving the conflict, according to RIA Novosti. Iran is reportedly adopting guerrilla tactics, including rocket-propelled grenades and limpet mines, in an effort to reassert control over the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt oil shipments from the Persian Gulf, according to WSJ. Gunfire was reportedly heard in Bandar Abbas and Sirik, while sources said firing was carried out at violating vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Tasnim. IRGC said four tankers were destroyed after striking mines south of the Strait of Hormuz and two other vessels were detained. UKMTO received a report of an incident 14NM northeast of Lima, Oman. Arab sources reported a missile attack by Houthi forces on Riyadh. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks were mixed with the Nasdaq leading gains while the S&P 500 and Russell also advanced, although the Dow Jones lagged and the equal-weighted S&P 500 declined. The Nasdaq was supported by a revival in tech stocks following recent pressure amid ongoing AI funding concerns and a slew of weak tech earnings, despite another disappointing update from Apple (AAPL) overnight. Apple shares closed lower after its margin guidance missed expectations, while on the call, the company also increased its manufacturing purchase obligations by USD 33bln to USD 90bln to help combat the memory crunch and secure supplies over the longer term. AI-related names firmed, with gains seen in the NCLD, DRAM and SOXX ETFs. Crude prices were choppy but ultimately settled lower, with losses driven by reports that the US had agreed to accept the MoU that Qatar presented to Iran on Monday, with both sides reportedly making concessions regarding the nuclear programme and frozen funds. The reports sent crude prices tumbling to fresh session lows, but a lack of confirmation, followed by pushback from Iranian officials, saw a large portion of the move reverse. SPX +0.37% at 7,569, NDX +0.68% at 28,180, DJI -0.38% at 51,786, RUT +0.35% at 2,816. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE Canadian PM Carney said US trade talks are advancing but not yet complete, with negotiations set to step up and some red lines still to be resolved, while he added the US is now asking for less and offering more, as well as noted that certain Canadian red lines have been dropped. Furthermore, he stated that negotiators need not always be in talks with the USTR and that they have good communication channels, while he looks forward to meeting Trump at the APEC summit in China. US officials have reportedly held up approval for American chipmaking equipment needed by SK Hynix (SKHY/000660 KS) to expand production in China, according to source reports. Brussels is demanding that the UK be bound by European restrictions on Chinese EVs and that ministers impose tariffs of up to 35% on Chinese-made EVs as the price of allowing British car firms equal access to EU markets, according to The Times. NOTABLE HEADLINES US tech giants' off-balance-sheet AI debt surged about 90% over six months to roughly USD 3.2tln across five major companies, according to Nikkei data compilation. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks were somewhat mixed, with risk assets hit early in the session as participants digested the results from the US Midterm Elections, which pointed to a strong performance by Democrats, as betting markets priced a 99% probability of a Democrat sweep, in which some of the notable victories include North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas senate seats, marking the first Democrat win in the latter state since 1960. ASX 200 declined as the downside was led by the mining, materials and resources sectors, although the losses in the broader market were somewhat cushioned by resilience in defensives and consumer stocks. Nikkei 225 underperformed as tech was pressured on prospects of tighter AI regulation associated with what looks increasingly to be a blue wave following the Midterm Elections, but is well off today's lows. KOSPI suffered amid the tech sell-off, while there were reports of North Korea conducting launches. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp weathered the stock sell-off in the region amid reports that the PBoC steps up stock repurchase and increased holdings and re-lending policies, while Chinese markets are also likely finding some solace as the increased likelihood of a Democrat sweep could restrict Trump tariff policies. US equity futures were sold amid the strong performance by Democrats in the Midterm Elections, as the results so far suggest the likelihood of a blue wave, which raises the prospects of tighter AI and tech regulation. European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.5% on Tuesday. FX DXY was pressured as all attention was on the Midterm Election results, which have pointed to a strong victory by the Democrats, who are on course for a Democrat sweep, and initially resulted in a broad risk-off trade and a decline in yields, while the results suggested legislative deadlock, with President Trump reiterating his readiness to veto bills should the Democrats take control of Congress, although he later stated that he could work with the Democrats on many things. EUR/USD benefitted from the weaker dollar as prospects of a Democrat-controlled Congress could put a leash on Trump's foreign policies, while there were also recent hawkish comments from ECB officials including Nagel, who stated that a rate hike in December was very likely to be necessary, warning that inflationary pressures had been higher than expected in September and were approaching the adverse scenario. GBP/USD remained firmer amid the dollar's demise, while newsflow and data for the UK remain light ahead of Thursday's widely expected BoE rate hike. USD/JPY retreated back beneath the 158.00 level amid the decline in US yields and with the Japanese currency also supported by the predominantly risk-off mood. Antipodeans saw two-way price action with initial pressure amid the early risk-off sentiment and with NZD/USD briefly retreating following weak jobs data, which showed a surprise contraction in Employment Change and an uptick in the Unemployment Rate, although it has since regained composure. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7180 vs exp. 6.6811 (prev. 6.7150). FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were underpinned in early trade and yields declined amid the mostly risk-off mood for most of the session as voters seemed to have firmly rebuked Trump at the midterm elections, although much of the move was then pared as markets came off their extremes. Bund futures faded the early haven bid that had been spurred by increased prospects of a blue wave. 10yr JGB futures lagged behind global counterparts despite the underperformance in Japanese stocks. COMMODITIES Crude futures were choppy with early pressure seen after FT reported that US President Trump said they have no immediate plan to strike Iran and stated they are locked and loaded if they need to go, but added there may be no reason for it, while the downside also coincided with strong early results from the Democrats in the midterms, although prices then rebounded and returned to flat territory as market moves were faded. US Weekly Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -5.3mln (exp. +1.9mln), Gasoline +1.4mln (exp. 0.0mln), Distillate -1.2mln (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing +0.5mln. IEA warned that European gas reserves are at their lowest since 2013. Eight tankers carrying 300.8k tonnes of Russian diesel are being monitored for potential voyages to the US, with seven listing the US as their destination and arrivals expected from November 7th, according to Ukrainian sources cited by an RFE journalist. Spot gold saw a haven bid amid a weaker dollar and the early risk-off mood. Copper futures declined as risk assets were pressured on increased prospects of a Democrat sweep. US and Venezuela are discussing a new aluminium cargo as the two countries seek to revive trade ties. CRYPTO Bitcoin returned to flat territory with prices rebounding after initially dipping beneath the USD 76,000 level as risk sentiment took a hit amid concerns of tougher AI and crypto legislation, with the Democrats on course to take control of both chambers of Congress. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES PBoC said it stepped up stock repurchase and increased holdings and re-lending policies, while it added that the application for relending has exceeded CNY 200bln. DATA RECAP Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (Oct) 50.8 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.6) Chinese RatingDog Composite PMI (Oct) 52.0 (Prev. 52.4) New Zealand Employment Change (Q3 QQ) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%) New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q3) 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.6%) New Zealand Participation Rate (Q3) 70.40% vs. Exp. 70.7% (Prev. 70.70%) New Zealand Labour Costs Index (Q3 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.7%) New Zealand Labour Costs Index (Q3 YY) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%) GEOPOLITICS OTHER The Trump administration is negotiating a status of forces agreement with Venezuela that could establish the basis for a long-term US military presence in the country, according to the New York Times citing US officials. South Korean military said North Korea fired multiple missiles from the Sondok area. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES ECB's Nagel said a rate hike in December was very likely to be necessary, warning that inflationary pressures had been higher than expected in September and were approaching the adverse scenario, while he said policymakers could and must prevent the energy price shock from triggering broader-based inflation. Furthermore, he said he is confident France will get a grip on its budget issues, which is not a task for monetary policy. ECB's Sleijpen said the Iran shock is more persistent than earlier thought, although they don't really see second-round effects yet.