뉴스퀘이크 미국 장 시작 전 일일 뉴스 - 2026년 10월 29일

The US administration is reportedly pursuing negotiations for a temporary peace agreement with Iran, although significant obstacles remain, according to Semafor. ECB President Lagarde to step down on 7 February 2027. NQ futures slump following disappointing Alphabet earnings. DXY is marginally firmer, giving back some of the post-FOMC losses; EUR lower ahead of the ECB. Fixed income benchmarks benefiting from lower energy prices (Brent -1.1%). Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP (Q3), PCE (Sep), Jobless Claims (w/e Oct/24), Personal Income (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct), Japanese Retail Sales (Sep), ECB Policy Announcement (Oct), EU-Canada summit (29-30 Oct). Speakers include ECB President Lagarde & Cipollone. Supply from the US. Earnings from Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Intel, Amazon, Sandisk, Starbucks. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% DAX40 +1.1% Stoxx 600 +0.4% FTSE 100 +0.4% ES Dec'26 -0.2% RTY Dec'26 +0.6% NQ Dec'26 -0.9% YM Dec'26 +0.6% FX DXY +0.1% (102.26) EUR/USD -0.2% (1.1134) USD/JPY +0.1% (157.95) GBP/USD -0.1% (1.3311) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +10 ticks Bund Dec'26 +30 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.995% German 10yr Yield 3.356% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -1.3% Brent Jan'27 -1.1% Spot Gold -1.0% LME Copper -1.0% CRYPTO Bitcoin -1.4% Ethereum -1.6% As of 10:00GMT / 06:00EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses are broadly firmer to start Thursday’s trade, with it being the busiest earnings day for Q3 in Europe. France’s CAC 40 (+1.0%) leads while the IBEX (-0.8%) lags. Outside of earnings (see more below), a modest boost across the equity space was seen following a Semafor report stating that the US administration is reportedly pursuing negotiations for a temporary peace agreement with Iran, although significant obstacles remain. Starting with earnings in South Korea for Samsung Electronics (-4.1%), its chip profit surged 15-fold Y/Y, driven by strong AI demand, but shares declined as investors were disappointed by the absence of new shareholder-return plans. To add, the chipmaker plans to increase FY26 CAPEX by more than 60% to KRW 84.4tln, after selling out of high-end chips for 2027. Moving to European earnings: STMicro +1.1%, Q3 metrics were mixed but its Q4 revenue guidance beat expectations (USD 4.15bln vs exp. USD 4.11bln); BBVA -5.2%, net income beat however, the metric missed for the Spanish region; ING -3.2%, metrics missed consensus across the board and it plans 400 job cuts; Shell +3.0%, adj. profit beat and announced a USD 5bln share buyback programme; Lloyds -4.9%, PBT beat estimates but disappointed investors by not lifting guidance. US equity futures are mixed, with clear underperformance in the NQ following disappointing Alphabet (-10.2%) pre-market earnings, in which EPS and revenue missed expectations, resulting in shares slumping pre-market. On the other hand, Microsoft (+3.6%) is higher pre-market after stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue, driven by robust Azure cloud growth and AI demand, alongside an upbeat cloud outlook and continued positive free cash flow. Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 2.12 (exp. 3.03), Rev. 127.6bln (exp. 127.91bln), Oper. income 40.58bln (exp. 43.16bln), Google Services rev. 96.30bln (exp. 98.4bln), Google Cloud rev. 30.71bln (exp. 29.1bln), Google Search & other rev. 63.35bln (exp. 64.85bln). Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 2027 (USD): EPS 4.92 (exp. 4.72), Rev. 92.3bln (exp. 90.6bln), Oper. income 45.9bln (exp. 44.1bln), Net income 36.6bln (exp. 35.1bln), Cloud rev. 63.9bln (exp. 61.62bln). Click for the session's European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX DXY is marginally firmer, but has slipped off best levels, and trades within a 102.06 to 102.33 range, paring some of Wednesday's losses, which came after Fed Chair Warsh's press conference lacked hawkish surprises; the Fed held rates as expected, with Hammack and Cook dissenting in favour of a 25bps hike. Focus turns to a busy US docket, including Q3 GDP, Sep PCE and weekly Jobless Claims at 12:30GMT/08:30EDT. EUR/USD is lower and holds towards the bottom end of a 1.1125 to 1.1161 range ahead of the ECB at 13:15GMT/09:15EDT, where policymakers are expected to hold rates at 2.50% despite elevated energy prices and inflation concerns (Full Newsquawk Preview available). GBP/USD is a touch softer within a 1.3295 to 1.3336 range, after marginal gains on Wednesday following the FOMC and the Autumn Budget, where the OBR raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 3.4% (prev. 2.0%) and cut its GDP growth forecast to 1.0%. Newsflow for the UK has been quiet, and the docket ahead is light. USD/JPY trades in a 157.60 to 158.07 range as the BoJ kicks off its 2-day meeting, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged, with focus on its language around achieving the 2% price target. Overnight, Japanese Consumer Confidence printed 35.0 (exp. 35.1), while Tokyo CPI is due tonight. Antipodeans are lower, with AUD/USD at the bottom end of a 0.7031 to 0.7068 range (with losses across metals not helping) and NZD/USD in a 0.5610 to 0.5637 range. RBNZ Governor Breman said chances of a December rate hike are high, after Wednesday's surprise 4-3 vote to hold, while NZ ANZ Business Confidence rose to 52.5 (prev. 51.9). Australian Import Prices fell 1.1% Q/Q (exp. +1.3%). FIXED INCOME Fixed benchmarks in the green, benefitting from the lack of hawkish surprise from the FOMC, despite the two hawkish dissenters. Otherwise, focus this morning swiftly returned to geopolitics, amid VP Vance’s mediation efforts; however, a recent Semafor report poured cold water on Vance’s efforts, though with current US focus on mediation, while strikes remain an option post-midterms. USTs just off best in 105-26 to 106-07 parameters, firmer by around 10 ticks as things stand. Bunds firmer by 30 ticks, holding at the upper end of 121.96 to 122.21 parameters into the ECB; Newsquawk preview available. This morning, action has been in tandem with USTs, and also a function of the pullback in Dutch TTF thus far, benefitting from constructive commentary from officials and energy desks. Gilts in-fitting, and seemingly taking the lack of hawkish surprise from the Fed as an excuse to pare back on market expectations around the BoE a touch, which are widely regarded as being too hawkish. Additionally, the lack of mistakes from Chancellor Healey during Wednesday’s budget is supportive, despite criticism from the various business bodies thereafter. Further, while he has kicked a welfare review into 2027, he continues to express an openness to cutting spending, to some degree at least. These points are supporting the space, to an 85.58 high, the highest since the final week of September. Japan sells JPY 2.12tln 2-year JGBs b/c 4.03 (prev. 3.89), average yield 1.905% (prev. 1.964%), Tail in price 0.014 (prev. 0.014). COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks declined overnight amid mediation hopes, after reports of a lot of back and forth between the Iranians and Americans via mediators, while US VP Vance reportedly reached out to Iranian hard-liner Rezaei in a bid to restart peace talks. Price action has been choppy in the European morning, with benchmarks bouncing off lows; WTI Dec'26 trades within a USD 100.71-102.31/bbl range, and Brent Jan'27 within a USD 109.75-111.00/bbl range, after settling at USD 102.78/bbl and USD 111.64/bbl, respectively, on Wednesday. Semafor reported that US President Trump is seriously considering resuming strikes on Iran shortly after the midterms if diplomacy fails, while the US remains engaged in negotiations over a temporary peace deal. Thereafter, reports suggested Iran agreed in principle to the proposed mechanisms but rejected any nuclear concessions, maintaining that nuclear negotiations can only take place after the war ends, the siege is lifted and the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Elsewhere, the White House said the US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections and that the blockade will remain in full force, while Iranian FM Araghchi said Iran could reopen Hormuz within days if its conditions are accepted. Iran's IRGC Navy claimed three tankers struck naval mines and caught fire while using an unauthorised southern route of the Strait of Hormuz, while UKMTO reported a vessel on fire 9nm north of Khasab, Oman. Dutch TTF is lower by around 4% and sits towards the bottom end of a EUR 96.46-99.10/MWh range. The EU Energy Commissioner said the bloc is better able to handle the crisis than in 2022, with gas use 18% below 2022 levels. Spot gold is lower by 1% and holds at the bottom end of a USD 4,016-4,069/oz range, after fading the post-FOMC knee-jerk uplift overnight. Spot silver is lower by some 2.6% within a USD 52.49-54.39/oz range, while platinum and palladium futures are lower by around 2.0% and 1.3%, respectively. Base metals are softer, with 3M LME Copper at the bottom end of a USD 14,349.00-14,506.45/t range, having stalled after its recent advances amid mixed risk sentiment. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that the LME plans to turn metal held in its Hong Kong warehouses into digital assets that can be used for financing. LME plans to turn metal held in its Hong Kong warehouses into digital assets that can be used ‌for financing, a move linked to the territory's five-year plan to expand its commodities hub, according to Reuters. TRADE/TARIFFS White House said US President Trump has directed officials to negotiate agreements with trading partners to address national security risks from imports of robotics and industrial machinery from any country. China condemned the US adding three Chinese firms to the Xinjiang Act list and MOFCOM called on the US to halt Xinjiang-related pressure and smear campaigns against Chinese companies, while it warned it will take firm action to safeguard its interests. Indian Trade Minister said a trade deal with the US will not compromise any sensitive interests of farmers or other stakeholders. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP European Consumer Inflation Expectations (Oct) 33.9 (Prev. 34.7). European Economic Sentiment (Oct) 96.9 vs. Exp. 97.5 (Prev. 97.5). European Selling Price Expectations (Oct) 24.8 (Prev. 20.8). European Services Sentiment (Oct) 5.3 vs. Exp. 5.9 (Prev. 5.9). European Industrial Sentiment (Oct) -3.4 vs. Exp. -3.8 (Prev. -3.9). UK M4 Money Supply (Sep MM) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%). UK Mortgage Lending (Sep) 3.87B vs. Exp. 4.2B (Prev. 4.17B). UK Mortgage Approvals (Sep) 53.44K vs. Exp. 54K (Prev. 54.81K). UK BoE Consumer Credit (Sep) 1.914B vs. Exp. 2.2B (Prev. 2.683B). Swedish GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.6%). Swedish GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.3%). Spanish Retail Sales (Sep MM) -0.4% (Prev. 0.3%). CENTRAL BANKS ECB President Lagarde to step down on 7 February 2027. BoC Governor Macklem said the US deficit spending is a question of political will, adding the inflation forecast is based on pass-through of fuel costs, and the estimate of the neutral rate of interest may rise, while he will have more to say on his future in due course. RBNZ Governor Breman said the chances of a December rate hike are high. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US House Democrats demand President Trump preserve conversations with Grok and other AI bots, Politico reported citing a letter. US Department of Agriculture confirmed New World Screwworm in Arizona. BofA total card spending rose 6.0% Y/Y in the week to 24 October (prev. +4.9%), with spending growth among lower-income households consistently outpacing that of higher-income households over recent weeks. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST The US administration is reportedly pursuing negotiations for a temporary peace agreement with Iran, although significant obstacles remain, according to Semafor citing an administration official. Trump confirmed VP Vance had written to Tehran to restart talks but downplayed the effort as humanitarian. The US is reportedly prepared to resume military strikes shortly after the midterm elections if diplomacy fails, pending presidential authorisation. US VP Vance reached out to Iranian hard-liner Rezaei in a bid to restart peace talks, according to WSJ. The outreach aims to test whether enough common ground exists to persuade Trump against ordering a short, intense strike on Iran in the coming weeks, while some US officials believe engaging Iranian hard-liners could produce a better diplomatic outcome. US President Trump said at a rally in Ohio that they will rename the Strait of Hormuz the Trump Strait. Trump separately commented that Iran needs help with medical supplies and that VP Vance's letter to the Iranian official was about supplies to help people, while Trump added that he didn't tell Vance to write to Iran. White House principal deputy press secretary Kelly told the Jerusalem Post that the US will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections, while she added that Iran is in very bad condition, both economically and militarily. Furthermore, she stated that the blockade will remain in full force and effect, with oil flowing in record numbers of barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. US reportedly warned allies to brace for possible Iran strikes, according to AP citing two diplomats. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran could reopen Hormuz within days if its conditions are accepted, according to Press TV. In later comments, Araghchi said they will continue close, sustained contacts with mediators to give diplomacy a chance. Iran's IRGC Navy claimed three tankers struck naval mines, exploded and caught fire while travelling through an unauthorised southern route of the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, with the vessels subsequently abandoned. The Navy also claimed to have intercepted and safely landed a US MQM-170 reconnaissance and decoy drone west of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian press noted a 'baseless claim' by US CENTCOM that main transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared of sea mines. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russian President Putin's aide said Moscow is negotiating with Washington regarding lifting sanctions against the Russian Direct Investment Fund. OTHER Japan's Coast Guard said North Korea fired a suspected ballistic missile, which appeared to have landed outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone, while a media report noted that North Korea fired around 10 missiles. South Korea's Defence Ministry said North Korea's deployment of older weapon systems near the border appears to be performative. CRYPTO Bitcoin slumped overnight, falling from a high of USD 81.29k to a low of USD 79.59k. The choppiness this week comes ahead of USD 11bln worth of options expiring this week. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were ultimately mixed as the region reflected on recent key events, including the FOMC rate decision and several big tech earnings. ASX 200 was kept afloat as strength in real estate, energy, financials and utilities atoned for the losses in the tech, consumer and mining sectors, but with gains capped amid a lack of fresh pertinent drivers. Nikkei 225 was choppy, briefly wiping out its early gains, before rebounding later in the session, with some caution seen as the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting. Meanwhile, attention was also on the largest-ever Topix rebalancing, which is expected to trigger around USD 60bln in passive trading at Thursday's close, with the reshuffle affecting more than 700 stocks and involving additions, deletions and free-float weight adjustments. KOSPI underperformed with index heavyweight Samsung Electronics pressured following its earnings results, in which it reported Q3 net income rose by more than 500% Y/Y to KRW 75.2tln, but failed to meet the lofty expectations. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied as participants digested a deluge of earnings, despite another firm liquidity effort by the PBoC, which continued with its CNY 1tln-plus open market operations. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES China is to hold a party congress in Beijing in 2027. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Japanese Consumer Confidence (Oct) 35.0 vs. Exp. 35.1 (Prev. 35.4).