[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed bearish and at fresh WTD lows into US PPI

In short, a bearish start to the final session of the week for fixed income, awaiting US PPI for further insight into PCE after the week’s CPI release and commentary from Fed’s Waller, who added 50bps into the discussion around December. Into that, USTs are at a 105-07 WTD low, off by over two full points on the week as a whole. Amidst this, the 10yr yield is at a 5.135% high, the highest since October 21st. PPI is the day’s main event, before a handful of Fed speakers, with pricing via the CME for December fully implying a hike, with an 88% chance of 25bps and a 12% chance of 50bps. Bunds also lower, holding around a 121.92 base with downside of around 50 ticks. Also at a WTD base, and just over 100 ticks lower for that period as it stands. Specifics today are a little light, final inflation measures not moving the dial while ECB speak hasn’t been too pertinent for policy, as we approach an expected December hike. Gilts in-fitting, and under pressure as such. 85.14 is today’s base, also a WTD low and off by about 150 ticks vs Monday’s open. Specifics also somewhat light this morning, awaiting a signal from the US events. For the UK, next week is significant as the Milburn NEET review hits, and will be scoured for what (if any) welfare adjustments PM Burnham makes; and, potentially more pertinently, the Labour Party’s opposition to such moves. Also, Burnham has a key speech on Monday ahead of his visit to the EU on Friday; the latest reads suggest the details are still being finalised, but there should be some progress on relations with the bloc.